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VANCOUVER MAYOR 2026 · PUBLIC OPINION POLLS

Who is ahead
for mayor?Every published poll, on one page.

3 surveys have asked Vancouver residents who they would vote for since the candidate list was settled, and 3 earlier tests measured line-ups that never made the ballot. Every chart shows the numbers as the pollster published them, with dates, sample sizes and links to the original reports.

The only count that decides the election is the vote on October 17, 2026.

Latest published poll

Fry leads Sim by 15 points.

Justason Market Intelligence · Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026 · 607 Vancouver adults, 336 with a choice for mayor · margin of error ±4.35 points

  1. Pete Fry, from Pete Fry campaign.Pete FryGreen Party of Vancouver45%+26 vs Research Co.
  2. Portrait of Ken Sim at Collision 2024, with a blue background.Ken SimABC Vancouver30%0 vs Research Co.
  3. Colleen Hardwick, from TEAM campaign.Colleen HardwickTEAM for a Livable Vancouver11%-3 vs Research Co.
  4. Kareem Allam, from Vancouver Liberals.Kareem AllamVancouver Liberals10%-9 vs Research Co.
  • Pete Fry45%
  • Ken Sim30%
  • Colleen Hardwick11%
  • Kareem Allam10%

Share of decided voters, as published. Changes compare with the Research Co. poll, a different company using a different method, so the change mixes two ways of measuring. A poll measures opinion only on the days it was taken.

01 / Over time

How the race has moved.

Each dot is one poll, placed on the last day of its interviews. Solid lines are candidates on the ballot. Dashed lines are people who withdrew or never ran.

  • Justason Market Intelligence, Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026: Pete Fry45%
  • Justason Market Intelligence, Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026: Ken Sim30%
  • Justason Market Intelligence, Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026: Colleen Hardwick11%
  • Justason Market Intelligence, Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026: Kareem Allam10%
  • Justason Market Intelligence, Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026: Rebecca Bligh5%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Ken Sim30%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Kareem Allam19%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Pete Fry19%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Colleen Hardwick14%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Rebecca Bligh7%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: William Azaroff5%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Stephanie Allen4%
  • Research Co., Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026: Other candidates3%

Pallas Data published only figures that include undecided voters, so it appears under “All respondents”. Mainstreet’s 2025 surveys tested Conservative candidates who did not run.

02 / Poll by poll

Every poll, newest first.

Who paid for it, who was asked, how, and what they said. Open the source links to read the pollster’s own report.

06Justason Market IntelligenceLatest

Interviews Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026

  • Pete Fry45%
  • Ken Sim30%
  • Colleen Hardwick11%
  • Kareem Allam10%
  • Rebecca Bligh5%
Asked
607 Vancouver adults
336 named a mayoral choice
How
Online survey, weighted by gender, age and region
Margin of error
±4.35 points
For the full sample of 607, 19 times out of 20. The effective sample after weighting is 509. The decided-voter group of 336 has a wider margin.
Paid for by
Justason Market Intelligence, co-sponsored by Fair Voting BC
Released
September 16, 2026

Inside the interview period

Interviews Aug 31 to Sep 7, before Azaroff withdrew (218 interviews)

  • Fry38%
  • Sim33%
  • Hardwick13%
  • Allam10%
  • Bligh6%

Interviews Sep 8 to 11, after both withdrawals (119 interviews)

  • Fry59%
  • Sim24%
  • Allam8%
  • Hardwick6%
  • Bligh2%
  • 60% / 19%Women: Fry / Sim
  • 39% / 32%Men: Sim / Fry
  • 48%Fry on the East Side
  • 47%Fry downtown
  • 39%Fry on the West Side
  • Voters who first chose Stephanie Allen or William Azaroff were moved to their stated second choice after those two candidates withdrew during the field period.
  • The two sub-period figures come from the pollster’s data tables. The later group holds 119 interviews, so its margin of error is wider than the full sample.
05Research Co.

Interviews Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026

  • Ken Sim30%
  • Kareem Allam19%
  • Pete Fry19%
  • Colleen Hardwick14%
  • Rebecca Bligh7%
  • William Azaroff5%
  • Stephanie Allen4%
  • Other candidates3%
Asked
401 likely voters
How
Online survey, weighted by age, gender and region
Margin of error
±4.9 points
19 times out of 20.
Paid for by
Research Co.
Released
August 4, 2026
Undecided
26% of everyone asked, left out of the shares shown
  • 36%Undecided among voters 55 and over
  • 20% / 14% / 11%Best placed to beat Sim: Allam / Fry / Hardwick
  • 39%Could not name anyone to beat Sim
  • 28% / 15%Sim among homeowners / renters (all respondents)
  • William Azaroff and Stephanie Allen were still in the race when this poll was taken.
04Pallas Data

Interviews Jul 20 to Jul 24, 2026

  • Pete Fry18%
  • Ken Sim14%
  • Kareem Allam12%
  • Colleen Hardwick11%
  • Stephanie Allen6%
  • William Azaroff4%
  • Rebecca Bligh3%
  • Undecided34%
Asked
312 Vancouver adults eligible to vote
How
Automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cell phones, weighted by age, gender and region
Margin of error
±5.5 points
At the 95% confidence level.
Paid for by
Conservative Electors Association
Released
July 30, 2026
  • 40% / 31%Undecided renters / homeowners
  • 19% / 9%Sim among men / women
  • 16% / 7%Allam among women / men
  • 18% / 7%Sim among homeowners / renters
  • Paid for by the Conservative Electors Association, a party that did not run a mayoral candidate. The pollster published only figures that include undecided voters.
03Mainstreet ResearchLine-up that did not happen

If Kirk LaPointe ran for the Vancouver Conservatives

Interviews Oct 17 to Oct 22, 2025

  • Kirk LaPointe26%
  • Pete Fry20%
  • Sean Orr17%
  • Kareem Allam16%
  • Ken Sim11%
  • Colleen Hardwick4%
  • Rebecca Bligh3%
  • Amanda Burrows2%
  • Fred Harding1%
Asked
1,205 Vancouver adults of voting age
How
Not stated in the published report we could access
Margin of error
±2.8 points
19 times out of 20.
Paid for by
Mainstreet Research
Released
October 25, 2025
  • 32% / 22% / 13%Party vote: Conservatives / Liberals / COPE
  • 11% / 8% / 5%Party vote: Greens / ABC / OneCity
  • 4% / 4% / 2%Party vote: TEAM / Vote Vancouver / NPA
  • A test of a line-up that never happened. The Vancouver Conservatives did not run a mayoral candidate, Kirk LaPointe ran in West Vancouver, and Sean Orr, Amanda Burrows and Fred Harding are not on the mayoral ballot.
  • The figures were published without a separate undecided share.
02Mainstreet ResearchLine-up that did not happen

If John Coupar ran for the Vancouver Conservatives

Interviews Oct 17 to Oct 22, 2025

  • John Coupar25%
  • Sean Orr20%
  • Pete Fry20%
  • Kareem Allam13%
  • Ken Sim13%
  • Colleen Hardwick4%
  • Amanda Burrows2%
  • Fred Harding1%
Asked
1,205 Vancouver adults of voting age
How
Not stated in the published report we could access
Margin of error
±2.8 points
19 times out of 20.
Paid for by
Mainstreet Research
Released
October 25, 2025
  • Same survey as the LaPointe test, with a different Conservative name. The report we could access did not give a figure for Rebecca Bligh in this version.
01Mainstreet ResearchLine-up that did not happen

Party and leader pairings as they stood in August 2025

Interviews Aug 27 to Aug 29, 2025

  • Kareem Allam19%
  • John Coupar18%
  • Pete Fry17%
  • Ken Sim15%
  • Amanda Burrows8%
  • Fred Harding8%
  • Lewis8%
  • Colleen Hardwick6%
Asked
961 Vancouver adults
How
Automated telephone interviews (smart IVR) on landlines and cell phones
Margin of error
±3.2 points
At the 95% confidence level.
Paid for by
Mainstreet Research
Released
September 5, 2025
Undecided
28% of everyone asked, left out of the shares shown
  • 28% / 72%Would consider re-electing ABC / Ken Sim: yes / no
  • 10% / 15%Vancouver better since Sim became mayor: a lot / somewhat
  • 23% / 32%Vancouver worse since Sim became mayor: somewhat / much
  • 19%Not sure whether better or worse
  • The COPE candidate is printed only as “Lewis” in the report. The Conservative name tested was John Coupar. Several of the people in this line-up are not on the 2026 mayoral ballot.
03 / Opinions of the people

Who voters like.

A favourable view means the person answered “positive” when asked their opinion of the candidate. Liking a candidate is different from voting for them.

  • Pete Fry45%
  • Kennedy Stewart40%
  • Ken Sim39%
  • Colleen Hardwick36%
  • Kareem Allam33%
  • Rebecca Bligh31%
  • William Azaroff25%
  • Stephanie Allen24%

Research Co. · Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026 · 401 likely voters

  • 52%Hold an unfavourable view of Ken Sim, the highest share for any candidate tested. His net score is −13.
  • +12Pete Fry’s net score, the best in the field. Kareem Allam is next at +10.
  • 40%View former mayor Kennedy Stewart favourably. He is not a candidate.

Net score is the favourable share minus the unfavourable share. Muted bars are people who withdrew or never ran.

SourcesResearch Co. release The Tyee, August 13, 2026 (unfavourable and net figures)
04 / Direction of the city

How voters rate the mayor.

Four companies asked whether Ken Sim and the city are doing well. Each bar is one question from one poll, so compare the wording before comparing the numbers.

Do you approve or disapprove of Ken Sim’s performance as mayor?

  • Strongly approve8%
  • Somewhat approve20%
  • Somewhat disapprove14%
  • Strongly disapprove34%
  • Strongly approve 8%
  • Somewhat approve 20%
  • Somewhat disapprove 14%
  • Strongly disapprove 34%

Pallas Data · Jul 20 to Jul 24, 2026 · 312 Vancouver adults eligible to vote

Approval of Mayor Ken Sim

  • Approve29%
  • Disapprove56%
  • Approve 29%
  • Disapprove 56%

Leger · Dec 3 to Dec 10, 2025 · 353 Vancouver residents

Approval of City Council

  • Approve32%
  • Approve 32%

Leger · Dec 3 to Dec 10, 2025 · 353 Vancouver residents

Is Vancouver on the right track or the wrong track?

  • Right track30%
  • Wrong track63%
  • Right track 30%
  • Wrong track 63%

Leger · Dec 3 to Dec 10, 2025 · 353 Vancouver residents

Have things got better or worse since Ken Sim became mayor?

  • A lot better10%
  • Somewhat better15%
  • Somewhat worse23%
  • Much worse32%
  • Don’t know19%
  • A lot better 10%
  • Somewhat better 15%
  • Somewhat worse 23%
  • Much worse 32%
  • Don’t know 19%

Mainstreet Research · Aug 27 to Aug 29, 2025 · 961 Vancouver adults

Would you consider voting to re-elect ABC and Ken Sim?

  • Yes28%
  • No72%
  • Yes 28%
  • No 72%

Mainstreet Research · Aug 27 to Aug 29, 2025 · 961 Vancouver adults

What should happen to ABC’s leadership of the city?

  • Keep the current leadership27%
  • Change the leaders, keep the policies32%
  • Different ideas and policies27%
  • Keep the current leadership 27%
  • Change the leaders, keep the policies 32%
  • Different ideas and policies 27%

Research Co. · Jan 26 to Jan 28, 2026 · 401 Vancouver adults

What kind of change voters want

Research Co. · Jan 26 to Jan 28, 2026 · 401 Vancouver adults · ±4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

  • 59% Vancouver needs a mayor and council willing to make major changes · 23% Too risky for Vancouver

  • 44% The city needs more progressive councillors · 25% Disagree

  • 47% Support ending the Board of Parks and Recreation

  • 70% Want a referendum before the Park Board is ended

SourceResearch Co. release, February 2, 2026

Other Leger findings

Leger · Dec 3 to Dec 10, 2025 · 353 Vancouver residents · Online panel (LEO), weighted by age and gender

  • 49% Support the promised property tax freeze for 2026

  • 66% Support more density along rapid transit

  • 53% Support low-income and supportive housing in their own neighbourhood

  • 81% Say they are likely to vote in the municipal election

Leger does not attach a margin of error to a panel sample. A probability sample of this size would carry ±5.2%.

SourcesLeger: Vancouver and Surrey residents on city issues Vancouver Sun report via Yahoo News
05 / Council and parties

How the parties stand.

Council seats are decided by party slates as much as by the mayor. The pollsters asked different questions, so each chart names its own.

Would “definitely” or “probably” include this party’s candidates on a council ballot

  • Green Party of Vancouver42%
  • ABC Vancouver40%
  • TEAM for a Livable Vancouver35%
  • Vancouver Liberals35%
  • OneCity Vancouver34%
  • Vote Vancouver32%
  • COPE26%

Research Co. · Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026 · poll details

Positive opinion of the party

  • Green Party of Vancouver51%
  • Vancouver Liberals48%
  • OneCity Vancouver44%
  • ABC Vancouver42%
  • TEAM for a Livable Vancouver41%
  • COPE35%
  • Vote Vancouver34%

Research Co. · Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026 · poll details

Council vote intention, all respondents (39% undecided)

  • Green Party of Vancouver13%
  • Vancouver Liberals12%
  • COPE11%
  • ABC Vancouver10%
  • TEAM for a Livable Vancouver7%
  • Vancouver Conservatives7%
  • OneCity Vancouver2%
  • Vote Vancouver1%

Pallas Data · Jul 20 to Jul 24, 2026 · poll details

Which party’s mayoral candidate would you vote for

  • Vancouver Conservatives32%
  • Vancouver Liberals22%
  • COPE13%
  • Green Party of Vancouver11%
  • ABC Vancouver8%
  • OneCity Vancouver5%
  • TEAM for a Livable Vancouver4%
  • Vote Vancouver4%
  • NPA2%

Mainstreet Research · Oct 17 to Oct 22, 2025 · poll details

Which party would you support, undecided removed

  • Vancouver Liberals23%
  • Vancouver Conservatives19%
  • ABC Vancouver15%
  • Green Party of Vancouver12%
  • OneCity Vancouver10%
  • COPE8%
  • NPA6%
  • TEAM for a Livable Vancouver6%

Mainstreet Research · Aug 27 to Aug 29, 2025 · poll details

06 / What voters care about

The single most important issue.

Residents were asked to name one issue facing the city, in their own words. 42% named cost of living or housing first.

  • Cost of living generally23%
  • Housing affordability19%
  • City government leadership or accountability10%
  • Public safety, crime10%
  • Homelessness9%
  • Taxes and city spending7%
  • Mental health and addictions6%
  • Traffic, transportation, transit4%
  • Climate change and extreme weather2%
  • Development and growth2%
  • Parks and public spaces2%

Justason Market Intelligence · Aug 31 to Sep 11, 2026 · 607 Vancouver adults

  • 10%Named public safety and crime, the same share as city leadership and accountability.

Answers under 2%, “other”, “not sure” and “not stated” are left off the chart. Leger’s December 2025 survey, which offered a fixed list, put public safety first at 33% and lower taxes second at 27%.

SourceJustason data tables PDF
07 / All the numbers

The full table.

Every mayoral poll and every published figure. Rows marked “all” include undecided voters; rows marked “decided” leave them out.

PollShare ofFrySimHardwickAllamBlighOthersUndecided
Justason Market IntelligenceAug 31 to Sep 11, 2026 · 607 asked · ±4.35Decided45%30%11%10%5%n/pn/p
Research Co.Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026 · 401 asked · ±4.9Decided19%30%14%19%7%Azaroff 5%Allen 4%Other 3%n/p
Research Co.Jul 30 to Aug 1, 2026 · 401 asked · ±4.9All14%22%10%14%5%Azaroff 4%Allen 3%Other 2%26%
Pallas DataJul 20 to Jul 24, 2026 · 312 asked · ±5.5All18%14%11%12%3%Azaroff 4%Allen 6%34%
Mainstreet ResearchOct 17 to Oct 22, 2025 · 1,205 asked · ±2.8 · If Kirk LaPointe ran for the Vancouver ConservativesDecided20%11%4%16%3%LaPointe 26%Orr 17%Burrows 2%Harding 1%n/p
Mainstreet ResearchOct 17 to Oct 22, 2025 · 1,205 asked · ±2.8 · If John Coupar ran for the Vancouver ConservativesDecided20%13%4%13%n/pCoupar 25%Orr 20%Burrows 2%Harding 1%n/p
Mainstreet ResearchAug 27 to Aug 29, 2025 · 961 asked · ±3.2 · Party and leader pairings as they stood in August 2025Decided17%15%6%19%n/pCoupar 18%Lewis 8%Burrows 8%Harding 8%n/p
Mainstreet ResearchAug 27 to Aug 29, 2025 · 961 asked · ±3.2 · Party and leader pairings as they stood in August 2025All13%11%4%14%n/pCoupar 13%Lewis 6%Burrows 6%Harding 5%28%

“n/p” means the pollster did not publish that figure. Muhammad Ahmad, Amauri Caliman and Scott Gilbert are on the ballot but were not named in any published poll; Research Co. grouped remaining candidates as “other”.

08 / Before you draw conclusions

How to read these polls.

Margin of error

A poll of 400 people can miss the true number by up to 5 points in either direction, 19 times out of 20. A lead of 3 points in such a poll is within that range and may not be a lead at all. A poll of 1,200 people is accurate to within 3 points.

Decided voters

Most headlines quote shares among people who have picked a candidate. In the summer polls, 26% to 34% of respondents had not picked one. Those people can move the result on election day.

Who paid

Pallas Data’s July survey was paid for by the Conservative Electors Association. The other polls were paid for by the pollsters themselves or, in Justason’s case, shared with Fair Voting BC, a group that campaigns for a different voting system.

Phone versus online

Mainstreet and Pallas called people with an automated phone system. Research Co., Justason and Leger used online panels. The two methods reach different people, which is one reason the numbers differ between companies.

Different line-ups

The 2025 surveys included a Vancouver Conservatives candidate who never ran, and COPE and OneCity candidates who withdrew in September 2026. Those results describe a different contest from the one on the ballot.

Timing

The Justason survey was in the field while two candidates dropped out. Interviews taken after September 8 put Pete Fry at 59%, against 38% in interviews taken before. The next poll will show whether that held.

Campaign dates that changed the candidate list

  1. Stephanie Allen (COPE) withdraws and endorses Pete FryJustason release
  2. William Azaroff (OneCity) withdraws and endorses Pete FryVancouver Sun via Yahoo News
  3. Election dayCity of Vancouver

This page lists every mayoral poll we could find in published form as of September 22, 2026. New polls are added when a pollster or news outlet publishes them. If we have missed one, tell us.