Polling in nine Toronto wards shows tight council races before Monday's vote

Mainstreet Research surveyed 894 Toronto residents between October 14 and 16 by IVR phone (landline and cellphone). In Parkdale-High Park (Ward 4), Nadia Guerrera leads with 35.2 per cent, Diana Chan McNally is second at 29.2 per cent, and Adam Pham is third at 15.5 per cent. The margin of error for that ward was plus or minus 6.1 points. In Spadina-Fort York (Ward 10), Ausma Malik leads with 43.2 per cent, Ian Cunningham is at 37.7 per cent, and Paul Nash at 9.2 per cent, margin of error plus or minus 5.7 points. In Scarborough-Rouge Park (Ward 24), Shawn Allen leads at 37.7 per cent, Neethan Shan at 28.5 per cent, and Zakir Patel at 12.9 per cent, margin of error plus or minus 5.3 points.

Forum Research polled six ward races, with results reported by NOW Toronto. In Beaches-East York (Ward 19, 1,084 voters surveyed), Nate Erskine-Smith leads at 32 per cent, Natalie Johnson at 26 per cent, James Dann at 22 per cent, and Jennie Worden at 16 per cent. In York South-Weston (Ward 5, 543 voters), Frances Nunziata leads at 34 per cent, Daniel DiGiorgio at 30 per cent, and Chiara Padovani at 28 per cent. Forum Research did not release field dates or margins of error for any of these ward surveys.

In Toronto-Danforth (Ward 14, 604 voters), Sara Ehrhardt leads at 40 per cent, Mary Fragedakis at 26 per cent, and Dianne Saxe at 22 per cent. In Scarborough Southwest (Ward 20, 538 voters), Parthi Kandavel leads at 41 per cent and Kevin Rupasinghe at 38 per cent. In Toronto Centre (Ward 13), Chris Moise leads at 34 per cent, Daniel Tate at 30 per cent, and Curran Stikuts at 25 per cent. In Scarborough North (Ward 23, 512 voters), Shaun Chen leads at 42 per cent, Jamaal Myers at 34 per cent, and Han Dong at 12 per cent. Forum did not release field dates or margins of error for these surveys.

NOW Toronto's report says Forum Research surveyed each ward but does not include field dates or margins of error for any of the Forum polls. Those figures were not published in the article. Mainstreet Research's results include full methodology: surveys conducted October 14 to 16, 2026, with a total of 894 respondents across the three wards, at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Nate Erskine-Smith is a former federal Liberal MP. Brad Bradford, who currently represents Ward 19 (Beaches-East York), left the seat to run for mayor, creating an open race. Forum Research found Erskine-Smith leading in that race at 32 per cent among 1,084 voters surveyed, though without field dates or a margin of error in the published results.

Forum Research surveyed 538 voters in Ward 20 (Scarborough Southwest) and found Parthi Kandavel at 41 per cent and Kevin Rupasinghe at 38 per cent. That is a three-point gap. Forum Research did not publish the field dates or the margin of error for this survey, so the statistical precision of the result is not known.

You can look up your ward at voche.me under Toronto 2026 ward races. The City of Toronto's website at toronto.ca/elections lists polling places by address. Toronto's municipal election is on Monday, October 26, 2026.

Yes. In Parkdale-High Park (Ward 4), Mainstreet Research found Nadia Guerrera at 35.2 per cent and Diana Chan McNally at 29.2 per cent. Forum Research found Guerrera at 32 per cent and Chan McNally at 29 per cent, with Vanessa Raponi at 17 per cent and Debbie King at 16 per cent. The Mainstreet survey was conducted October 14 to 16 with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 points. Forum Research did not release its field dates or margin of error.