TORONTO 2026 · PUBLIC OPINION POLLS

Who is ahead
for mayor?The published polls, on one page.

13 polls by 7 firms: every published poll we found with interviews since September 1, 2026. Every poll figure is shown as the firm published it, with its dates, its sample size and a link to the report.

The count that decides the election is the vote on October 26, 2026.

Latest published poll

Chow leads Bradford by 2.9 points.

Mainstreet Research · Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026 · 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto · margin of error ±3.1 points

Olivia Chow47.2%
Brad Bradford44.3%
Odessa Paloma Parker2.8%
Sarah McVie2.5%

Share of decided and leaning voters, as published. Changes compare with the same firm’s earlier poll. A poll measures opinion only on the days it was taken.

01 / Over time

How the race has moved.

Each dot is one poll, placed on the last day of its interviews.

Mainstreet Research, Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026: Olivia Chow47.2%
Mainstreet Research, Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026: Brad Bradford44.3%
Mainstreet Research, Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026: Odessa Paloma Parker2.8%
Mainstreet Research, Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026: Sarah McVie2.5%
Mainstreet Research, Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026: Other3.2%
Forum Research, Oct 6, 2026: Olivia Chow46%
Forum Research, Oct 6, 2026: Brad Bradford42%
Forum Research, Oct 6, 2026: Other12%
Liaison Strategies, Oct 3 to Oct 4, 2026: Olivia Chow48%
Liaison Strategies, Oct 3 to Oct 4, 2026: Brad Bradford40%
Liaison Strategies, Oct 3 to Oct 4, 2026: Chris Alexander9%
Liaison Strategies, Oct 3 to Oct 4, 2026: Other3%
Nanos Research, Sep 30 to Oct 4, 2026: Olivia Chow52.4%
Nanos Research, Sep 30 to Oct 4, 2026: Brad Bradford42.6%
Nanos Research, Sep 30 to Oct 4, 2026: Chris Alexander4%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Olivia Chow45.4%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Brad Bradford38.3%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Chris Alexander8.5%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Sarah McVie2.4%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Odessa Paloma Parker2.1%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026: Other3.3%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Olivia Chow48%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Brad Bradford39%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Chris Alexander10%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Other3%
Canada Pulse Insights, Sep 14 to Sep 24, 2026: Olivia Chow51%
Canada Pulse Insights, Sep 14 to Sep 24, 2026: Brad Bradford34%
Canada Pulse Insights, Sep 14 to Sep 24, 2026: Chris Alexander9%
Canada Pulse Insights, Sep 14 to Sep 24, 2026: Other6%
Forum Research, Sep 23, 2026: Olivia Chow46%
Forum Research, Sep 23, 2026: Brad Bradford35%
Forum Research, Sep 23, 2026: Chris Alexander6%
Forum Research, Sep 23, 2026: Other13%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 19 to Sep 20, 2026: Olivia Chow47%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 19 to Sep 20, 2026: Brad Bradford40%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 19 to Sep 20, 2026: Chris Alexander10%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 19 to Sep 20, 2026: Other3%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Olivia Chow45.8%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Brad Bradford37.7%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Chris Alexander9.6%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Sarah McVie2.5%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Odessa Paloma Parker1.9%
Mainstreet Research, Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026: Other2.4%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 4 to Sep 5, 2026: Olivia Chow50%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 4 to Sep 5, 2026: Brad Bradford39%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 4 to Sep 5, 2026: Chris Alexander10%
Liaison Strategies, Sep 4 to Sep 5, 2026: Other2%

Scope Research and Ipsos published shares of everyone asked, undecided people included, so their polls are in the table and left off this chart.

02 / Poll by poll

Every poll, newest first.

13Mainstreet ResearchLatest

Interviews Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026

Olivia Chow47.2%
Brad Bradford44.3%
Other3.2%
Odessa Paloma Parker2.8%
Sarah McVie2.5%

Asked: 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto
864 named a choice
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response) to landlines and cell phones
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Paid for by: Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
Released: October 9, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
10% of everyone asked were undecided

Mainstreet says every interview took place after Chris Alexander suspended his campaign on October 6, and the report does not list him.
Among all respondents, 3.6% said they would not vote.

12Scope Research

Interviews Oct 6, 2026

Olivia Chow44%
Brad Bradford41%
Other3%

Asked: 3,100 Toronto residents aged 18 years or older
How: Online poll, with people invited by text message
Margin of error: ±2 points
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based sample would be ±2%, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: October 8, 2026
Shares are of: all respondents
11% of everyone asked were undecided

Scope Research’s own page describes the firm as a subsidiary of Jenni Byrne + Associates, a public affairs and government relations firm.
The release says Chow has “about 44%” and that 2% would not vote.

11Forum Research

Interviews Oct 6, 2026

Olivia Chow46%
Brad Bradford42%
Other12%

Asked: 1,604 randomly selected Toronto residents over the age of 18
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response), 78% to cell phones and 22% to landlines
Margin of error: ±2.45 points
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2.45%, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: October 6, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters

The release is headed “Toronto Mayoral Race Tightens Following Chris Alexander’s Withdrawal” and gives no share for him.

10Liaison Strategies

Interviews Oct 3 to Oct 4, 2026

Olivia Chow48%
Brad Bradford40%
Chris Alexander9%
Other3%

Asked: 1,000 Toronto residents
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice recording) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: October 6, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters

09Nanos Research

Interviews Sep 30 to Oct 4, 2026

Olivia Chow52.4%
Brad Bradford42.6%
Chris Alexander4%

Asked: 755 randomly selected Toronto residents
How: Online and by telephone
Margin of error: ±3.6 points
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: CP24 and CTV News Toronto
Released: October 6, 2026
Shares are of: decided voters
22% of everyone asked were undecided

These figures are from CP24’s report of the poll. The firm’s own report was not found.
CP24 gives Chris Alexander’s 4 per cent, and “about one per cent” for other candidates, as shares “of respondents”.

08Mainstreet Research

Interviews Sep 28 to Sep 29, 2026

Olivia Chow45.4%
Brad Bradford38.3%
Chris Alexander8.5%
Other3.3%
Sarah McVie2.4%
Odessa Paloma Parker2.1%

Asked: 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto
850 named a choice
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response) to landlines and cell phones
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Paid for by: Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
Released: October 2, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
16% of everyone asked were undecided

The release date is from CBC’s report of October 2, which says the survey was released that Friday.

07Liaison Strategies

Interviews Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026

Olivia Chow48%
Brad Bradford39%
Chris Alexander10%
Other3%

Asked: 1,000 Toronto residents
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice recording) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: September 30, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
15% of everyone asked were undecided

06Canada Pulse Insights

Interviews Sep 14 to Sep 24, 2026

Olivia Chow51%
Brad Bradford34%
Chris Alexander9%
Other6%

Asked: 510 adult residents of the City of Toronto
How: Not stated in the CityNews report
Margin of error: ±4.3 points
The margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size is +/- 4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: CityNews
Released: September 29, 2026
Shares are of: decided voters
20% of everyone asked were undecided

These figures are from CityNews’ report of the poll, which was done for CityNews. Among all respondents it gives Chow 38 per cent, Bradford 25 per cent and Alexander 7 per cent.

05Forum Research

Interviews Sep 23, 2026

Olivia Chow46%
Brad Bradford35%
Other13%
Chris Alexander6%

Asked: 1,014 randomly selected Toronto residents over the age of 18
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response), 79% to cell phones and 21% to landlines
Margin of error: ±4 points
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 4.0%, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: September 25, 2026
Shares are of: decided voters

The release gives these as shares “of voters” and prints no undecided share. The four shares add to 100.

04Liaison Strategies

Interviews Sep 19 to Sep 20, 2026

Olivia Chow47%
Brad Bradford40%
Chris Alexander10%
Other3%

Asked: 1,000 Toronto residents
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice recording) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: September 22, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
17% of everyone asked were undecided

03Mainstreet Research

Interviews Sep 14 to Sep 17, 2026

Olivia Chow45.8%
Brad Bradford37.7%
Chris Alexander9.6%
Sarah McVie2.5%
Other2.4%
Odessa Paloma Parker1.9%

Asked: 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto
836 named a choice
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response) to landlines and cell phones
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Paid for by: Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
Released: September 18, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
16.8% of everyone asked were undecided

The release date is from NOW Toronto’s report of September 18, which says Mainstreet published the poll that Friday.

02Ipsos

Interviews Sep 4 to Sep 8, 2026

Olivia Chow36%
Brad Bradford21%
Other5%
Chris Alexander4%

Asked: 1,006 residents of Toronto aged 18+
How: Online survey of the Ipsos panel
Margin of error: ±3.8 points
The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Torontonians aged 18+ been polled.
Paid for by: The Toronto Star
Released: September 23, 2026
Shares are of: all respondents
30% of everyone asked were undecided

Ipsos published shares of everyone asked. 3% said they would not vote.
Ipsos reports a credibility interval, its own measure of precision for an online poll.

01Liaison Strategies

Interviews Sep 4 to Sep 5, 2026

Olivia Chow50%
Brad Bradford39%
Chris Alexander10%
Other2%

Asked: 1,000 Toronto residents
How: Automated phone calls (interactive voice recording) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
Margin of error: ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Paid for by: Not stated in the release
Released: September 9, 2026
Shares are of: decided and leaning voters
16% of everyone asked were undecided

03 / All the numbers

The full table.

Poll	Share of	Chow	Bradford	Alexander	McVie	Parker	Other	Undecided
Mainstreet ResearchOct 6 to Oct 7, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	47.2%	44.3%	n/p	2.5%	2.8%	3.2%	10%
Scope ResearchOct 6, 2026 · 3,100 asked · ±2	all respondents	44%	41%	n/p	n/p	n/p	3%	11%
Forum ResearchOct 6, 2026 · 1,604 asked · ±2.45	decided and leaning voters	46%	42%	n/p	n/p	n/p	12%	n/p
Liaison StrategiesOct 3 to Oct 4, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	48%	40%	9%	n/p	n/p	3%	n/p
Nanos ResearchSep 30 to Oct 4, 2026 · 755 asked · ±3.6	decided voters	52.4%	42.6%	4%	n/p	n/p	n/p	22%
Mainstreet ResearchSep 28 to Sep 29, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	45.4%	38.3%	8.5%	2.4%	2.1%	3.3%	16%
Liaison StrategiesSep 26 to Sep 27, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	48%	39%	10%	n/p	n/p	3%	15%
Canada Pulse InsightsSep 14 to Sep 24, 2026 · 510 asked · ±4.3	decided voters	51%	34%	9%	n/p	n/p	6%	20%
Forum ResearchSep 23, 2026 · 1,014 asked · ±4	decided voters	46%	35%	6%	n/p	n/p	13%	n/p
Liaison StrategiesSep 19 to Sep 20, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	47%	40%	10%	n/p	n/p	3%	17%
Mainstreet ResearchSep 14 to Sep 17, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	45.8%	37.7%	9.6%	2.5%	1.9%	2.4%	16.8%
IpsosSep 4 to Sep 8, 2026 · 1,006 asked · ±3.8	all respondents	36%	21%	4%	n/p	n/p	5%	30%
Liaison StrategiesSep 4 to Sep 5, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1	decided and leaning voters	50%	39%	10%	n/p	n/p	2%	16%

“n/p” means the firm did not publish that figure.

04 / Before you draw conclusions

How to read these polls.

Margin of error

These polls asked between 510 and 3,100 people. Each one states a margin of error or a figure like it, from ±2 to ±4.3 points, 19 times out of 20. A lead smaller than the margin can be no lead at all.

Who paid

Mainstreet Research: Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
Scope Research: Not stated in the release
Forum Research: Not stated in the release
Liaison Strategies: Not stated in the release
Nanos Research: CP24 and CTV News Toronto
Canada Pulse Insights: CityNews
Ipsos: The Toronto Star

How people were reached

Mainstreet Research: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response) to landlines and cell phones
Scope Research: Online poll, with people invited by text message
Forum Research: Automated phone calls (interactive voice response), 78% to cell phones and 22% to landlines; Automated phone calls (interactive voice response), 79% to cell phones and 21% to landlines
Liaison Strategies: Automated phone calls (interactive voice recording) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
Nanos Research: Online and by telephone
Canada Pulse Insights: Not stated in the CityNews report
Ipsos: Online survey of the Ipsos panel

What the shares are a share of

Mainstreet Research: decided and leaning voters
Scope Research: all respondents
Forum Research: decided and leaning voters; decided voters
Liaison Strategies: decided and leaning voters
Nanos Research: decided voters
Canada Pulse Insights: decided voters
Ipsos: all respondents

This page lists every poll we could find in published form with interviews since September 1, 2026, as of October 10, 2026. If we have missed one, tell us.

05 / Questions

Questions about these polls.

Who is leading the polls for mayor in Toronto?

Olivia Chow has 47.2% and Brad Bradford has 44.3% of decided and leaning voters in the most recent poll, by Mainstreet Research, with interviews Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026.

How many polls of the Toronto mayor race are on this page?

13 polls by 7 firms (Mainstreet Research, Scope Research, Forum Research, Liaison Strategies, Nanos Research, Canada Pulse Insights and Ipsos), with interviews from September 4, 2026 to October 7, 2026. The page starts at September 1, 2026, and each poll links to its source.

When is the election in Toronto?

Election day is October 26, 2026. Polls are opinion surveys, and the count on election day decides the result.

Does voche.me run its own polls?

voche.me commissions no polls. Every figure on this page is copied from the polling firm's published report, and voche.me adds no adjustment or projection of its own.

Who is aheadfor mayor?The published polls, on one page.