Pollara poll gives Chow 55 per cent to Bradford's 44 per cent among decided Toronto voters
A Pollara Strategic Insights survey of 1,094 Toronto residents, conducted October 16 to 21, finds Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford by 11 percentage points among decided voters ahead of the October 26 vote.
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Pollara Strategic Insights found that Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 55 per cent to 44 per cent among decided Toronto voters, according to a survey published by Global News on October 23, 2026. The poll covered 1,094 Toronto residents by online and telephone from October 16 to 21, with 697 responding online and 397 by telephone.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Chow's lead of 11 points is larger than the margin of error on either candidate's number.
The figures include people who already voted during the advance voting period from October 6 to 11. Pollara counted advance voters as decided voters in the final figures. Advance voters cast their ballots during those six days and cannot change them.
The same survey measured how respondents felt about each candidate. Forty-eight per cent reported positive feelings about Chow. Bradford's positive rating was 36 per cent. Both figures come from Pollara.
Global News noted that other polls in the final days before the election have shown a closer contest. Canada Pulse Insights put Chow ahead by five points (51 to 46) in a survey with a similar field period. Liaison Strategies showed Bradford at 49 per cent and Chow at 47 per cent, and Mainstreet Research found Bradford leading. The different results reflect different sample sizes, methods and field windows. The polls page at /on/toronto-2026/news lists all published surveys for this race.
The Pollara survey covered the race between the two leading candidates only. Eight other people are on the Toronto mayoral ballot. Their names and platforms are listed at /on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor, along with the sources behind each profile.
Voting day is Monday, October 26, 2026. Polls open at 10 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. You can find your assigned voting location at toronto.ca/elections.
Questions this story answers
What did the Pollara poll find?
Pollara Strategic Insights found that Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 55 per cent to 44 per cent among decided Toronto voters, including those who have already voted in advance polls. The poll was conducted October 16 to 21, 2026 and surveyed 1,094 Toronto residents by online and telephone methods.
Who conducted this poll?
Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the survey on behalf of Global News. It covered 1,094 Toronto residents from October 16 to 21, 2026: 697 were surveyed online and 397 by telephone. Pollara is a Canadian polling and market research firm based in Ottawa. The firm's full methodology is published with the Global News article.
What is the margin of error for this poll?
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. That means the true support for Chow is likely between 52 and 58 per cent, and the true support for Bradford is likely between 41 and 47 per cent. Chow's 11-point lead is larger than the margin of error on each side.
What are the favourability ratings for each candidate?
The Pollara poll found that 48 per cent of respondents hold positive feelings about Olivia Chow. For Brad Bradford, 36 per cent of respondents hold positive feelings. Both figures come from the same October 16 to 21 survey of 1,094 Toronto residents.
How does this poll compare to recent ones?
This Pollara result showing Chow ahead by 11 points contrasts with some other recent surveys that showed a tighter race. Different firms have produced different numbers in the final week of the campaign, reflecting differing methods and field dates. The voche.me polls page tracks every published survey.
When is Toronto's election day?
Voting day is Monday, October 26, 2026. Polling places open at 10 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. You can find your assigned voting location through the City of Toronto's election website at toronto.ca/elections. The advance voting period ran from October 6 to 11 and has already ended, so Monday is the only remaining day to vote in person.
What does 'decided voters' mean in this poll?
Decided voters are people who told Pollara they have chosen a candidate and plan to vote for that person. The figures of 55 per cent for Chow and 44 per cent for Bradford apply to this group. Pollara specified that decided voters includes people who already cast ballots during the advance voting period from October 6 to 11, 2026, so early voters count in the total.
Where can I see all Toronto mayoral polls?
The voche.me news page at /on/toronto-2026/news lists every published poll for this race. Each entry shows the polling firm, the field dates, the sample size and the margin of error, so you can compare results from different firms side by side before you vote on Monday, October 26.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Global News: Toronto election poll (Pollara)globalnews.ca
- voche.me Toronto polls pagevoche.me
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