Nanos poll finds Chow and Bradford in statistical tie with six days to vote
A Nanos Research survey for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, conducted Oct. 15-18, puts Olivia Chow at 49.8 per cent and Brad Bradford at 46.6 per cent among decided voters, within the margin of error.
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Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford are within the margin of error in the latest Nanos Research poll of the Toronto mayoral race. The survey, conducted Oct. 15-18 for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, puts Chow at 49.8 per cent and Bradford at 46.6 per cent among decided voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. CTV News published the results on Oct. 20.
Nanos Research reached 762 Toronto residents aged 18 and older using a random-digit-dial method, with interviews on both landlines and mobile phones and online. Sixteen per cent said they were still undecided, down from 22 per cent in a Nanos poll released on Oct. 6.
According to CTV News, Chow leads in Scarborough at 50.9 per cent and in downtown Toronto at 58.2 per cent, while Bradford leads in North York at 54.1 per cent and Etobicoke at 52.9 per cent.
Chow has the support of more than 55 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34, the CTV News report says, while Bradford is the preferred choice among those aged 35 to 54 at 52.2 per cent and among those 55 and older at 49.7 per cent.
CTV News chief data scientist Nik Nanos said in a statement that the deciding factors will be the debate and "organizational muscle to deliver supporters." A debate titled "Toronto Decides: The Municipal Debate" is scheduled for Oct. 22 at 7 p.m. on CP24. Nanos said "things can still change ahead of the Oct. 26 vote."
Among those most likely to vote, Chow holds a four-point advantage, while Bradford leads by four points among those less certain they will cast a ballot, CTV News reported. Chow held a nearly 10-point lead over Bradford in a Nanos poll released Oct. 6.
Voting day is Monday, Oct. 26. A summary of all published polls in this race, with pollster, field dates, sample size and margin of error for each, is at the Toronto 2026 poll tracker.
Questions this story answers
What did the Nanos Research poll find?
Nanos Research surveyed 762 Toronto residents between Oct. 15 and Oct. 18, 2026 for CP24 and CTV News Toronto. Among decided voters, Olivia Chow received 49.8 per cent and Brad Bradford received 46.6 per cent. Four per cent said they would support another candidate. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, which means the two leading candidates are within the margin of error and the poll does not establish who is ahead.
How does this compare to earlier Nanos polls in this race?
According to CTV News, Chow held a nearly 10-point lead over Bradford in a Nanos poll released on Oct. 6. Her support among decided voters has fallen since then, while Bradford's has risen. The Oct. 15-18 poll is the most recent in this series. You can see the history of published polls at /on/toronto-2026/polls.
Where does each candidate lead within Toronto?
According to CTV News, the Nanos poll finds Chow ahead in Scarborough at 50.9 per cent and downtown at 58.2 per cent. Bradford leads in North York at 54.1 per cent and Etobicoke at 52.9 per cent. These figures are from the decided-voter sample.
How many people remain undecided?
Sixteen per cent of the 762 respondents said they were still not sure who to support, according to CTV News. That is down from 22 per cent in the Nanos poll released on Oct. 6. Among those most likely to vote, Chow holds a four-point advantage, while Bradford leads by four points among those less certain they will cast a ballot, CTV News reported.
What did Nanos say about the race?
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at CTV News, said in a statement quoted by CTV News that the deciding factors will be the debate and 'organizational muscle to deliver supporters.' A debate between the two leading candidates is scheduled for Oct. 22 at 7 p.m. on CP24. Nanos said 'things can still change ahead of the Oct. 26 vote.'
How were the interviews conducted?
Nanos Research used a random-digit-dial dual-frame method, reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones, with half interviewed by telephone and half online. The survey covered 762 Toronto residents aged 18 and older, from Oct. 15 to Oct. 18, 2026.
Is there a debate before voting day?
Yes. CTV News reports that a debate titled 'Toronto Decides: The Municipal Debate' will be broadcast live on CP24, CP24.com and the CP24 app on Oct. 22 at 7 p.m. The debate had not yet taken place at the time this poll was released.
When is voting day in Toronto?
Voting day is Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. All advance voting has closed. For information on where to vote, visit Toronto's election office website. A summary of all published polls in this race is at /on/toronto-2026/polls.
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