Liaison Strategies poll puts Bradford at 49, Chow at 47 with five days to go
A Liaison Strategies survey conducted Oct. 18-19 finds Brad Bradford at 49 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with voting day on Oct. 26.
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A new Liaison Strategies poll finds Brad Bradford at 49 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters in the Toronto mayoral race, with five days until voting day on Monday, Oct. 26. The two-point gap falls within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Liaison Strategies published the results on Oct. 21, 2026.
The firm surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents between Oct. 18 and 19, using Interactive Voice Recording on landlines and mobile phones. Results were weighted to match the 2021 Census. Three per cent of decided and leaning voters chose someone other than the two leading candidates.
Liaison principal David Valentin said in the release that Bradford has gained three points and Chow has lost four since the firm's Oct. 13 release, which had found Chow leading by five points. "The order has changed, but this is not a result either campaign can treat as a clear lead," Valentin wrote. "It is a much less comfortable race for the mayor than it was last week."
The biggest regional shift, according to Liaison, is in North York. In the Oct. 13 release, Chow led there 50 per cent to Bradford's 46 per cent. In this survey, Bradford leads 56 per cent to 42 per cent. Bradford also leads 63 per cent to 35 per cent in Etobicoke. Chow holds a 55 per cent to 41 per cent advantage in the downtown area. Scarborough is nearly even, at 49 per cent for Chow and 48 per cent for Bradford. Regional figures are drawn from smaller subsamples and carry a higher margin of error.
Among all respondents, including the 14 per cent who are undecided, Bradford is at 42 per cent and Chow at 41 per cent. Chow's overall approval rating stands at 50 per cent, with 45 per cent disapproving. Bradford's favourability is 38 per cent positive and 42 per cent negative.
Chow continues to lead among women voters, 56 per cent to Bradford's 41 per cent, while Bradford leads among men, 58 per cent to 38 per cent. Among voters 65 and older, Bradford leads 56 per cent to 40 per cent. Among the youngest voters, aged 18 to 34, the two candidates are tied at 49 per cent each.
You can compare all published polls from this race, with pollster, field dates, sample size and margin of error for each, at the Toronto 2026 poll tracker.
Questions this story answers
What did the Liaison Strategies poll find?
The poll, conducted Oct. 18-19 among 1,000 Toronto residents using Interactive Voice Recording on landlines and mobile phones, found Brad Bradford at 49 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters. Three per cent chose someone else. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Among all respondents, including the undecided, Bradford is at 42 per cent and Chow at 41 per cent, with 14 per cent undecided. Liaison Strategies published the results on Oct. 21, 2026.
What changed since the previous Liaison Strategies poll?
Liaison Strategies released a Toronto poll on Oct. 13 that found Chow leading Bradford by five points. In the Oct. 21 release, Bradford has gained three points and Chow has lost four compared to those Oct. 13 figures. Liaison principal David Valentin said in the release that a five-point Chow lead has become a two-point Bradford edge. Because both the earlier and current results are within the firm's stated margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, neither release establishes a clear leader.
Where does Bradford lead and where does Chow lead?
According to Liaison Strategies, Bradford leads in North York with 56 per cent to Chow's 42 per cent, and in Etobicoke with 63 per cent to 35 per cent. Chow leads in the downtown area with 55 per cent to Bradford's 41 per cent. Scarborough is close, at 49 per cent for Chow and 48 per cent for Bradford. These regional figures are based on smaller subsamples within the survey and are more variable than the city-wide number.
How does Bradford lead among homeowners and how does Chow lead among renters?
Liaison Strategies says Bradford leads among decided and leaning homeowners with 54 per cent to Chow's 42 per cent. Chow leads among renters with 54 per cent to Bradford's 44 per cent. David Valentin noted in the release that Bradford has improved his standing on both sides of that divide compared to the Oct. 13 results, widening his lead among owners and narrowing Chow's lead among renters.
What does the poll say about Bradford's and Chow's personal ratings?
Among all respondents, 50 per cent approve of Chow's performance and 45 per cent disapprove. Bradford is viewed favourably by 38 per cent and unfavourably by 42 per cent, with 11 per cent unsure and 9 per cent unfamiliar with him. Liaison Strategies notes that Bradford is gaining votes without becoming more broadly liked, and that 31 per cent of undecided voters say they are unfamiliar with him, meaning both campaigns still have people to persuade.
Is Bradford's lead large enough to be considered real?
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 19-in-20 confidence level. Bradford's two-point edge among decided and leaning voters falls within that margin. Liaison principal David Valentin said in the release that this is not a result either campaign can treat as a clear lead. You can compare this poll with others from across the race at the Toronto 2026 poll tracker.
How was the poll conducted?
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Oct. 18 to Oct. 19, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including the decided-and-leaning figures.
When is voting day in Toronto?
Voting day is Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. Advance voting has already closed. The City of Toronto's election office can help you find your assigned voting place and confirm your eligibility. You can also compare all published polls from this race, with pollster, field dates, sample size and margin of error, at the Toronto 2026 poll tracker at /on/toronto-2026/polls.
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