Mainstreet poll puts Bradford ahead of Chow with six days to go
A Mainstreet Research survey conducted Oct. 16-18 finds Brad Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47.5 per cent, within the margin of error.
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A new poll from Mainstreet Research finds Brad Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47.5 per cent in the Toronto mayoral race, with six days until election day on Monday, Oct. 26. Because both figures fall within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, the poll does not establish which candidate is actually ahead. CityNews Toronto reported the results on Oct. 20, 2026.
Mainstreet Research surveyed 1,000 Toronto adults aged 18 and older between Oct. 16 and 18, using Interactive Voice Response on landlines and mobile phones. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were undecided.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said in a statement that Chow "had previously led wire to wire" in the firm's polling of this race. "Brad Bradford now leads in Etobicoke and North York and Chow leads in Scarborough and downtown," Maggi said, according to CityNews Toronto. He described the race as "truly too close to call."
Bradford leads among older voters, a group Mainstreet says is more likely to cast a ballot on election day. Maggi said the final result will depend on voter turnout and the last days of campaigning.
This is the most recent Mainstreet poll in a race that has tightened across October. An earlier Mainstreet poll released Oct. 9 found Chow ahead. A separate Nanos Research poll for CTV News and CP24, also conducted Oct. 15-18, put Chow at 49.8 per cent and Bradford at 46.6 per cent among decided voters, also within that survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Voting day is Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. You can compare all published polls in this race, with pollster, field dates, sample size and margin of error for each, at the Toronto 2026 poll tracker.
Questions this story answers
What did the Mainstreet Research poll find?
The poll, conducted Oct. 16-18 among 1,000 Toronto adults, found Brad Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Olivia Chow at 47.5 per cent among all respondents. Thirteen per cent said they were undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. CityNews Toronto reported the results on Oct. 20, 2026.
Is this the first time Bradford has led in this poll series?
According to Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, Bradford has not led before in this series. Maggi said in a statement reported by CityNews Toronto that 'Chow had previously led wire to wire' and that this result 'represents a seismic shift in the mayoral election in Toronto.' That characterization comes from the polling firm, not from either campaign.
What is the margin of error for the poll?
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. Because Bradford's lead over Chow is 1.4 percentage points, the two candidates are within the margin of error, and the poll cannot establish which candidate is actually ahead.
Where does each candidate lead within Toronto?
According to CityNews Toronto's report of the Mainstreet findings, Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York, while Chow leads in Scarborough and downtown Toronto. Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, also said that Bradford leads among older voters, who Mainstreet says are more likely to vote on election day. Maggi said the final result will depend on turnout and the last days of campaigning.
How were the interviews conducted?
Mainstreet Research used Interactive Voice Response, reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. The survey covered 1,000 adults aged 18 and older living in Toronto, and was conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18, 2026.
How does this compare to earlier Mainstreet polls in this race?
An earlier Mainstreet poll released Oct. 9 put Chow ahead of Bradford. The October 9 result and this October 20 result are both from Mainstreet Research but cover different field periods, and the change in standing reflects a shift in that firm's measurements over the two weeks between those field dates. You can see earlier poll results at /on/toronto-2026/polls.
When is voting day in Toronto?
Voting day is Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. Advance voting has already closed. You can find your voting place using the City of Toronto's election website. If you registered to vote or were on the voters' list, you will have received a voter notification card with your assigned voting place. The city's election office can also confirm eligibility and address questions about where to vote.
Where can I see all polls from this Toronto mayoral race?
The poll tracker at /on/toronto-2026/polls lists published polls from this race with the pollster, field dates, sample size and margin of error for each one. A poll without those four details is not listed. The Mainstreet Research poll from Oct. 16-18 puts Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Chow at 47.5 per cent, both within the margin of error.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- CityNews Toronto: Bradford takes narrow lead over Chow in Toronto mayoral race: polltoronto.citynews.ca
- Full Mainstreet Research poll results (PDF)cdn.prod.website-files.com
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