New poll puts Olivia Chow 2.5 points ahead of Brad Bradford with three weeks left
A Mainstreet Research poll released 9 October puts Chow at 40.8 per cent and Bradford at 38.3 per cent, with the gap within the margin of error.
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A new poll shows the Toronto mayoral race has narrowed to a statistical tie with three weeks until voting day on 26 October.
Mainstreet Research put incumbent mayor Olivia Chow at 40.8 per cent support and city councillor Brad Bradford at 38.3 per cent in a survey of 1,000 Toronto residents conducted on 6 and 7 October. CBC News reported the results on Friday.
The gap between the two candidates is 2.5 percentage points. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Quito Maggi, the president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, told CBC News the result was "statistically tied."
"It appears the Bradford campaign may have some momentum," Maggi said in a news release. He said the chances of a Chow re-election were "less and less certain."
Chow held a six-point lead in Mainstreet's previous survey of the race, conducted at the end of September.
The new poll also asked respondents to choose directly between the two candidates following Chris Alexander's withdrawal from the race on 6 October. In that question, Chow took 44.7 per cent and Bradford took 41.5 per cent. Ten per cent of respondents were still undecided in the main question.
The poll found a split along gender and age lines. Chow's support is higher among female voters and younger people. Bradford draws more support from older voters and from men.
Bradford's campaign responded in a news release. Spokesperson Laryssa Waler was quoted by CBC News: "The Mayor has a plan to scare you. That's the whole campaign. Change is within our grasp. To change the city, we need to change the mayor, and 17 days from now that's exactly what we intend to do."
CBC News said it had reached out to the Chow campaign for comment but had not received one.
Mainstreet reached 1,000 Toronto residents by interactive voice recording on both landlines and cellphones. The resulting data was weighted to match targets from the 2021 census. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Advance voting is open at 50 locations across Toronto through 11 October. Election day is 26 October. You can find the full candidate list and advance voting locations on the City of Toronto's website or at /on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor.
Questions this story answers
What did the Mainstreet Research poll find about the Toronto mayoral race?
A Mainstreet Research poll released on 9 October 2026 put incumbent mayor Olivia Chow at 40.8 per cent support and city councillor Brad Bradford at 38.3 per cent, according to CBC News. That is a gap of 2.5 percentage points between the two candidates, and the poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20, so Quito Maggi, the pollster's president and CEO, described the result as statistically tied.
Who conducted the poll and when was the fieldwork done?
The poll was conducted by Mainstreet Research. Fieldwork ran on 6 and 7 October 2026. The pollster reached 1,000 Toronto residents by interactive voice recording on both landlines and cellphones. The resulting data was weighted to match targets from the 2021 census. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. CBC News reported the results on 9 October.
How does this compare to earlier Mainstreet polling?
Mainstreet Research conducted a previous survey of the Toronto mayoral race at the end of September 2026. At that point Olivia Chow led Brad Bradford by six percentage points, according to CBC News. The new poll shows that gap has narrowed to 2.5 points since Chris Alexander withdrew from the race on 6 October 2026.
What happened in the head-to-head question between Chow and Bradford?
Mainstreet Research also asked poll respondents to choose directly between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford, as a way of accounting for Chris Alexander's recent withdrawal. In that question, Chow took 44.7 per cent support and Bradford took 41.5 per cent, according to CBC News. The 10 per cent undecided from the main question were not counted in those figures.
Did the Chow or Bradford campaigns respond to the poll?
Brad Bradford's campaign responded in a news release, with spokesperson Laryssa Waler quoted by CBC News saying: 'The Mayor has a plan to scare you. That's the whole campaign. Change is within our grasp. To change the city, we need to change the mayor, and 17 days from now that's exactly what we intend to do.' CBC News said it had reached out to the Chow campaign for comment but had not received one at the time of publication.
What does the poll show about voter demographics?
The Mainstreet Research poll found a split along gender and age lines, according to CBC News. Olivia Chow's support is higher among female voters and younger people. Brad Bradford draws more support from older voters and from men. The poll did not publish exact figures for those demographic breakdowns in the CBC report.
What do the poll results mean for voters who have not yet cast a ballot?
The poll shows Toronto's mayoral race is close. Advance voting is open at 50 locations across the city from 6 to 11 October 2026, and election day is 26 October 2026. You can find advance voting locations on the City of Toronto's website. Voter registration is open through election day, and every registered Toronto resident 18 or older who is a Canadian citizen and lives in Toronto is eligible to vote.
How many candidates are on the Toronto mayoral ballot in 2026?
The City of Toronto's certified candidate list for the 2026 mayoral race shows 53 candidates, according to a note at the bottom of the CBC News poll article. Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford are the two candidates with the highest measured support in recent polls. Chris Alexander, who had held the third-highest standing in earlier surveys, suspended his campaign on 6 October 2026.
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