New poll puts Chow at 51 per cent, Bradford at 46 per cent, three days before Toronto votes
Canada Pulse Insights surveyed 737 Toronto residents between October 16 and 21 and found Olivia Chow with a five-point lead over Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters.
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With three days left before Toronto votes, a new poll by Canada Pulse Insights for CityNews finds Olivia Chow at 51 per cent and Brad Bradford at 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with three per cent supporting another candidate. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The firm surveyed 737 adult Toronto residents between October 16 and 21, 2026 using an online panel managed by Sago, with results weighted to 2021 Census benchmarks by age and gender.
The race has tightened since September
Chow held a 17-point lead over Bradford in September. Since then, Bradford has gained 12 percentage points. Chow's support has held at 51 per cent over the same period.
Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander was polling at nine points in September before withdrawing from the race. The poll did not attribute Bradford's gain directly to Alexander's exit.
John Wright, CEO of Canada Pulse Insights, said in a release: "The final push by campaign organizers to get supporters to the polls will likely determine who wins the most ballots tallied on Monday night."
Where each candidate leads
The poll breaks results down by area of Toronto. Chow leads in Scarborough with 56 per cent to Bradford's 41 per cent, and in Toronto and East York with 55 per cent to Bradford's 43 per cent.
Bradford leads in North York with 51 per cent to Chow's 46 per cent. He holds a narrow lead in Etobicoke York with 49 per cent to Chow's 47 per cent.
Support by age and income
Among decided voters aged 18 to 34, Chow has 61 per cent to Bradford's 37 per cent. Bradford leads among voters aged 35 to 54, with 53 per cent to Chow's 44 per cent. Among voters 55 and older, the two are close: Chow at 50 per cent, Bradford at 48 per cent.
Chow leads among households earning under $50,000 (62 per cent) and among those earning $50,000 to $99,999 (56 per cent). Bradford leads among households earning $150,000 or more, with 59 per cent to Chow's 39 per cent.
University graduates are close to evenly split, with 48 per cent supporting Chow and 49 per cent supporting Bradford.
Why voters say they are choosing
Among respondents who named a candidate, 68 per cent said they were voting mainly to support their chosen candidate, while 32 per cent said their main goal was to stop another candidate from winning. Among Bradford supporters, 38 per cent cited prevention as their main reason. Among Chow supporters, 26 per cent did.
Eight per cent of respondents were undecided at the start of the survey, down from 20 per cent in September.
Toronto's municipal election is on Monday, October 26. You can find your polling place at toronto.ca/elections.
Questions this story answers
What does this poll say about the Toronto mayoral race?
Canada Pulse Insights surveyed 737 adult Toronto residents between October 16 and 21, 2026 for CityNews. Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow has 51 per cent support and Brad Bradford has 46 per cent. Three per cent support another candidate. The margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How has the race changed since September?
Chow had a 17-point lead over Bradford in September. Since then, Bradford has gained 12 percentage points among decided voters, according to Canada Pulse Insights. Chow's support has stayed at 51 per cent over that period.
Which parts of Toronto does each candidate lead in?
According to the poll, Chow leads in Scarborough with 56 per cent to Bradford's 41 per cent, and in Toronto and East York with 55 per cent to Bradford's 43 per cent. Bradford leads in North York with 51 per cent to Chow's 46 per cent, and has a narrow lead in Etobicoke York with 49 per cent to Chow's 47 per cent.
Which age groups back which candidate?
Among decided voters aged 18 to 34, Chow has 61 per cent support and Bradford has 37 per cent. Bradford leads among voters aged 35 to 54, with 53 per cent to Chow's 44 per cent. Among voters 55 and older, Chow has 50 per cent and Bradford has 48 per cent, according to the Canada Pulse Insights poll.
How does household income affect voter choice?
Chow leads among decided voters in households earning less than $50,000, with 62 per cent support, and among those earning $50,000 to $99,999, with 56 per cent. Bradford leads among decided voters in households earning $150,000 or more, with 59 per cent to Chow's 39 per cent, the poll found.
How many voters are still undecided?
The poll found eight per cent of respondents were undecided when first asked, down from 20 per cent in September. At the first vote-choice question, 46 per cent named Chow, 42 per cent named Bradford and two per cent named another candidate, with one per cent saying they would not vote for any candidate.
What are voters' main reasons for their choice?
Among all respondents who named a candidate, 68 per cent said they were voting mainly to support their chosen candidate, while 32 per cent said their main reason was to prevent another candidate from winning. Among Bradford supporters, 38 per cent cited prevention as their main motivation. Among Chow supporters, 26 per cent cited prevention.
When is voting day and where can I find my polling place?
Toronto's municipal election is on Monday, October 26, 2026. You can find your assigned polling place on the City of Toronto's website at toronto.ca/elections. Advance voting has already closed, so Monday is the only day left to vote in person.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Canada Pulse Insights poll for CityNews Toronto, Oct. 16-21, 2026toronto.citynews.ca
- Toronto election candidatesvoche.me
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