Three new polls disagree on who leads Toronto's mayoral race
Three polling firms published results on October 21. Two put Bradford ahead by narrow margins, while a third commissioned by CUPE Local 416 puts Chow ahead by seven points.
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Three polling firms published results on October 21, five days before Toronto's October 26 mayoral election, and they point in different directions on whether Brad Bradford or Olivia Chow leads.
Global News reported all three sets of results on October 21.
What Mainstreet found
Mainstreet Research placed Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Chow at 47.5 per cent. The firm conducted its survey between October 16 and October 18, 2026, with a sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over living in Toronto. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet, said Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York while Chow is ahead in Scarborough and downtown Toronto.
What Liaison found
Liaison Strategies placed Bradford at 49 per cent and Chow at 47 per cent. The firm surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from October 18 to October 19, 2026, using conventional phone and interactive voice recording technology. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison, described the race as showing no clear favourite, according to Global News.
What Pollara found
Pollara Strategic Insights placed Chow at 53 per cent and Bradford at 46 per cent among decided voters. Pollara conducted its survey from October 13 to October 19, 2026, covering 1,099 Toronto residents through a combination of online panel (695 participants) and live telephone interviews (404 participants).
Because the sample includes an online panel, Pollara says no margin of error applies to this poll. A purely telephone sample of 1,099 would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Pollara poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the union representing City of Toronto Water workers. CUPE Local 416 had endorsed Chow for mayor before the poll was conducted.
What this means for voters
Advance voting is over. Voters cast their ballots on election day Monday, October 26, 2026. Candidate pages for both Brad Bradford and Olivia Chow are at /on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor. Poll results for all firms are tracked at /on/toronto-2026/polls.
Questions this story answers
What did the Mainstreet Research poll find?
Mainstreet Research conducted its poll between October 16 and 18, 2026, with a sample of 1,000 adults in Toronto. It gave Brad Bradford 48.9 per cent support and Olivia Chow 47.5 per cent support. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. Mainstreet said Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York while Chow leads in Scarborough and downtown. These results come from Global News's reporting on October 21, 2026.
What did the Pollara Strategic Insights poll find?
Pollara Strategic Insights found Olivia Chow ahead of Brad Bradford by seven points among decided voters, at 53 per cent to 46 per cent. The survey was fielded October 13 to 19, 2026, and covered 1,099 Toronto residents aged 18 and over, combining an online panel and telephone interviews. Pollara says no margin of error applies because the sample includes an online panel. The poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the union representing Toronto Water workers, which endorsed Chow earlier in the campaign.
What did the Liaison Strategies poll find?
Liaison Strategies gave Brad Bradford 49 per cent and Olivia Chow 47 per cent. The firm surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from October 18 to 19, 2026, using phone and interactive voice recording technology. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. David Valentin, principal at Liaison, described the race as a dead heat, according to Global News.
Why do the polls give different results?
Each firm used different methods, different field dates, and different sample sizes. Mainstreet used phone and interactive voice recording from October 16 to 18. Liaison used a similar method from October 18 to 19. Pollara combined an online panel and telephone interviews from October 13 to 19, which is why Pollara says no margin of error applies. The Global News article published October 21 reports all three results.
Who commissioned the Pollara poll?
CUPE Local 416, the union representing workers at City-run Toronto Water, commissioned the Pollara Strategic Insights poll. CUPE Local 416 had already endorsed Olivia Chow for mayor when the poll was conducted. Global News noted this in its October 21 article.
When is Toronto's election day?
Voters choose the mayor and city councillors on Monday, October 26, 2026. Advance voting ran from October 6 to 11. If you need voting day information, the City of Toronto's election site has the details. You can also find candidate pages at voche.me's Toronto election section.
Where do Bradford and Chow each lead geographically?
According to Mainstreet Research, Brad Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York. Olivia Chow leads in Scarborough and downtown Toronto. Mainstreet's CEO Quito Maggi described these regional splits in a news release, as reported by Global News on October 21, 2026.
Is the Toronto mayoral race decided?
No poll published this week gives either candidate a lead larger than the respective margin of error for that poll, except Pollara's, which carries no margin of error because of its online panel component. Global News described the race as showing no clear favourite based on the three polls published October 21, 2026. Election day is October 26, 2026.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Global News Toronto: Three polls on October 21globalnews.ca
- Toronto election: candidates pagevoche.me
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