Forum Research poll puts Chow ahead of Bradford by 4 points after Alexander exits
A Forum Research telephone survey of 1,604 Toronto residents conducted on October 6 shows Olivia Chow at 46 percent and Brad Bradford at 42 percent among decided and leaning voters.
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A Forum Research telephone survey of 1,604 Toronto residents conducted on October 6 shows Olivia Chow at 46 percent and Brad Bradford at 42 percent among decided and leaning voters in the mayor's race, CityNews Toronto reported.
The poll was conducted on the day Chris Alexander announced he was leaving the race. CityNews Toronto reported that Forum Research said the race has tightened since the company's September 25 poll, which showed Chow at 46 percent and Bradford at 35 percent, an 11-point gap.
A gap that narrowed
The October 6 survey puts Chow's lead over Bradford at 4 points. The September 25 Forum Research poll put it at 11 points. The October 6 poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The methodology: Forum Research surveyed 1,604 randomly selected Toronto residents aged 18 and older by telephone. The survey was conducted on October 6, 2026.
What Alexander's exit changed
CityNews Toronto reported that the remaining results suggest 12 percent of respondents would vote for someone else. Alexander withdrew from the race a half hour before advance voting was scheduled to start on October 6, according to CityNews Toronto.
When the poll was released
CityNews Toronto said it got an exclusive look at the new polling. It reported that Forum Research released the polling after the Tuesday night debate between Chow and Bradford. CityNews also reported that, with Alexander out of the race, pollsters point to a much closer contest between the two leading candidates, and that Forum Research said the race has tightened since its September 25 poll, when Chow led 46 to 35 per cent.
What voters can do
Advance voting is open until October 11 at voting places across the city. Election day is October 26. To review what each candidate has said about their plans, visit their candidate pages at /on/toronto-2026/candidates/olivia-chow and /on/toronto-2026/candidates/brad-bradford.
Questions this story answers
What does the Forum Research poll show for the Toronto mayor's race?
Forum Research surveyed 1,604 Toronto residents on October 6, 2026, the day Chris Alexander withdrew from the race. Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow polled at 46 percent and Brad Bradford polled at 42 percent, a gap of 4 percentage points. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to CityNews Toronto's report of the poll.
How has Olivia Chow's lead changed since earlier polls?
Forum Research's September 25, 2026 poll showed Chow at 46 percent and Bradford at 35 percent, an 11-point lead. The October 6 poll shows Chow at 46 percent and Bradford at 42 percent, a 4-point lead among decided and leaning voters. CityNews Toronto reported that pollsters said the race has tightened since Alexander exited.
What methodology did Forum Research use for this poll?
The poll was a telephone survey of 1,604 randomly selected Toronto residents aged 18 and older, conducted on October 6, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to CityNews Toronto's report.
Is there any other polling data on the Toronto mayor's race?
CityNews Toronto's report covered the Forum Research poll of October 6, 2026. It also gave the result of the earlier Forum Research poll of September 25, 2026, which had Chow at 46 percent and Bradford at 35 percent. Visit /on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor for a full list of candidates.
When did Chris Alexander withdraw in relation to the poll?
Forum Research conducted the poll on October 6, 2026. CityNews Toronto reported that Chris Alexander pulled out of the race that Tuesday, a half hour before advance voting was set to begin in the city. CityNews also reported that, with him out of the race, pollsters point to a much closer contest between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford.
When is advance voting and when is election day?
Advance voting runs October 6 to 11, 2026. Election day is October 26, 2026. The City of Toronto says advance voting is offered at two voting places in each of the 25 wards, and a voter can vote at either location in their ward. To confirm voting place hours and locations, visit the City of Toronto's elections page.
What effect did Chris Alexander's withdrawal have on his supporters in the poll?
CityNews Toronto reported that Forum Research's results among decided and leaning voters put Chow at 46 percent and Bradford at 42 percent, and that the remaining results suggest 12 percent of respondents would vote for someone else. The Forum Research poll was conducted on October 6, 2026, with 1,604 randomly selected Toronto residents.
Where can I learn more about Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford?
Candidate pages for Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford are at /on/toronto-2026/candidates/olivia-chow and /on/toronto-2026/candidates/brad-bradford. Both pages list each candidate's stated positions and links to their campaign websites, as recorded on the City of Toronto's certified list of candidates.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- CityNews Toronto: Chow's lead over Bradford narrows to 4 points in Toronto mayoral race, latest poll showstoronto.citynews.ca
- Forum Researchforumresearch.com
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