Ipsos poll gives BC Conservatives a five-point lead over BC NDP
An Ipsos survey conducted October 7 to 11 found 43 per cent of decided voters backed the Conservatives, compared with 38 per cent for the NDP, with one in four voters saying they still might change their vote.
Reported. A news outlet found this. voche.me names the outlet and links its report. Read the original report on globalnews.ca.
An Ipsos poll conducted October 7 to 11 for Global BC gave the BC Conservatives a five-point lead over the BC NDP among decided voters, with a sizeable share of the electorate still open to changing its mind before the October 24 vote.
The poll found the BC Conservatives had the support of 43 per cent of decided voters, compared with 38 per cent for the BC NDP and 11 per cent for the BC Greens, led by Emily Lowan. OneBC sat at 4 per cent and CentreBC at 2 per cent. Eighteen per cent of voters were still undecided.
The methodological details
Ipsos surveyed 1,356 adult British Columbians between October 7 and 11, 2026, online through the Ipsos panel (1,001 respondents) and by phone with live interviewers, using both cellphones and landlines (350 respondents). Global News reported the overall poll is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Regional breakdown
The race was tighter in Metro Vancouver, where the BC Conservatives led by three points at 42 per cent to the BC NDP's 39 per cent, Global News reported. On Vancouver Island, the BC NDP held a larger lead at 47 per cent to the Conservatives' 27 per cent. In the Southern Interior and the northern part of the province, the BC Conservatives led by 21 points at 53 per cent to the BC NDP's 32 per cent.
Leaders' favourability
David Eby led Lorne Doerkson on favourability, at 35 per cent to 26 per cent, Global News reported. However, Eby's unfavourable rating was 38 per cent compared with Doerkson's 24 per cent. Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos, told Global News that the lower unfavourable number for Doerkson reflects that many voters simply do not know him yet.
"The leadership question is an open one here," Braid told Global News. "People just know David Eby, and his numbers actually are not that bad. They're still open to hearing from David Eby. They just don't know Lorne Doerkson yet."
Many voters still undecided
About one in four voters who already have a current party preference, 23 per cent, told Ipsos there is still a good chance they will vote for a different party. Braid estimated to Global News that 25 per cent of all voters remain up for grabs when both undecided and soft-leaning voters are counted.
Half of residents, 50 per cent, now say it is time for another provincial party to take over, up from the previous poll, Global News reported. Thirty-one per cent said the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
The BC provincial leaders' debate takes place tonight, October 14, at 6:15 p.m. Pacific. You can follow polling trends for all parties on the BC provincial polls page.
Questions this story answers
What did the Ipsos poll conducted October 7 to 11 find?
The poll, conducted for Global BC, found the BC Conservatives had the support of 43 per cent of decided voters, putting them five points ahead of the BC NDP, which had 38 per cent. The BC Green Party sat at 11 per cent, OneBC at 4 per cent and CentreBC at 2 per cent, according to Global News. The poll also found 18 per cent of voters were still undecided and 7 per cent had no preference.
How many people were surveyed and what is the margin of error?
Ipsos surveyed 1,356 adult British Columbians from October 7 to 11, 2026, both online through the Ipsos panel (1,001 respondents) and by phone with live interviewers (350 respondents) using cellphones and landlines. Global News reported that the overall poll is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, using a credibility interval.
How did the parties compare by region in the Ipsos poll?
Global News reported that the race was close in Metro Vancouver, with the BC Conservatives leading by three points at 42 per cent to the BC NDP's 39 per cent. The BC NDP had a larger lead on Vancouver Island, at 47 per cent to the BC Conservatives' 27 per cent. The BC Conservatives led by 21 points in the Southern Interior and in the northern part of the province, at 53 per cent to the BC NDP's 32 per cent.
What did the poll find about leader approval?
Global News reported that BC NDP leader David Eby led on favourability at 35 per cent compared with 26 per cent for BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson. However, Eby's unfavourable rating was 38 per cent, while Doerkson's was 24 per cent. Kyle Braid of Ipsos told Global News that Doerkson's lower unfavourable number reflects the fact that many voters still do not know him.
What fraction of voters might still change their vote?
Global News reported that nearly one in four voters who already have a current party preference, 23 per cent, said there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for a different party. Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos, told Global News there are probably about 25 per cent of voters still up for grabs, including those who are undecided and those who are leaning but not certain.
How does this Ipsos poll compare to the Research Co. poll from October 13?
A separate Research Co. poll also published on October 13, 2026, with field dates of October 9 to 11, found BC Conservatives at 44 per cent and BC NDP at 42 per cent among decided voters, a two-point gap. The Ipsos poll, with field dates of October 7 to 11, shows a wider five-point gap. Both polls show the BC Conservatives ahead. Different field dates and different methodologies can produce different results, and both fall within their respective margins of error.
What is the significance of this poll before the leaders' debate?
Kyle Braid of Ipsos told Global News that many voters are still open to changing their vote, making the leaders' debate, scheduled for October 14 at 6:15 p.m. Pacific, a significant event. Braid said Eby has a task of making voters feel there is a risk in electing a Conservative government, while Doerkson's main goal is to introduce himself to voters who do not yet know him.
Where can I find out more about each party's platform and candidates?
You can read about each party and their candidates at voche.me. The BC NDP, Conservative Party of BC and BC Green Party each have a party page at /bc/provincial-2026/parties/ with links to all their candidates. You can also read the latest election news at /bc/provincial-2026/news. The election is October 24, 2026. Advance voting runs October 16 to 21, and you can find your voting place through Elections BC.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
Found an error? Tell the editors with the corrections form. A correction is noted on the story it changes. Read our standards.
