Leger poll puts Conservatives at 44%, NDP at 39%, two days before voting
A Leger survey conducted October 20 to 22 shows the BC Conservatives leading the BC NDP by 5 points among decided voters, with the BC Greens at 13%.
Reported. A news outlet found this. voche.me names the outlet and links its report. Read the original report on leger360.com.
A Leger poll conducted October 20 to 22, 2026 shows the Conservative Party of BC leading the BC NDP by 5 percentage points among decided voters, two days before voting day.
Leger surveyed 1,072 British Columbia residents aged 18 or older using its LEO online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservative Party of BC stands at 44%. The BC NDP sits at 39%. The BC Greens are at 13%. Six percent of respondents said they were undecided.
How each region breaks
In Metro Vancouver the Conservatives lead 44% to 40% for the NDP. On Vancouver Island the two parties are nearly tied: Conservatives 39%, NDP 40%. In the rest of the province the Conservatives lead by 10 points, 46% to 36%.
Among men, Leger found a 12-point Conservative advantage. Among women, the NDP holds a 2-point edge.
Voters aged 18 to 34 back the BC Greens at 20%, the highest Green number across age groups. Voters aged 35 to 54 lean Conservative by 14 points.
How this compares to earlier in the campaign
Conservative support is up 5 points since Leger's survey in early October. NDP support is up 3 points. Green support is up 4 points. The share of undecided voters fell from 12% to 6% over the same period.
This Leger survey was completed on October 22, the same day the Angus Reid Institute published a poll based on fieldwork from October 15 to 19. The Angus Reid poll showed the Conservatives at 46% and the NDP at 43%, a 3-point gap. The two polls use different field dates and methods, which accounts for some of the difference.
The full results are on the Leger website at the link below.
Voting day is Saturday, October 24. If you have not yet voted, you can find your voting location at elections.bc.ca, or see the polls page at /bc/provincial-2026/polls for all published surveys from this campaign.
Questions this story answers
Who conducted this poll?
Leger conducted this poll. Leger is a Canadian research firm. It surveyed 1,072 British Columbia residents aged 18 or older between October 20 and 22, 2026, using its LEO online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighted by age, gender, region, and education.
What are the vote shares in this poll?
Among decided voters, the Conservative Party of BC stands at 44%, the BC NDP at 39%, and the BC Greens at 13%. An additional 6% of respondents said they were undecided. These are the percentages Leger reported from respondents who gave a party preference.
How does this compare to earlier polls?
Leger's previous survey of the campaign, conducted in early October, showed Conservative support up 5 points since that poll, NDP support up 3 points, and Green support up 4 points. Undecided voters fell from 12% to 6% as election day approached.
How does the race look by region?
In Metro Vancouver, the Conservatives lead 44% to 40% for the NDP. On Vancouver Island, the parties are nearly tied: Conservatives at 39%, NDP at 40%. Everywhere else in the province, the Conservatives lead by 10 points: 46% to 36%.
Are there differences by gender?
Yes. Leger found men break toward the Conservatives by 12 points. Women show a 2-point NDP advantage. These are the point-lead figures Leger published; exact percentages by gender were not printed on the release page.
Are there differences by age?
Voters aged 18 to 34 back the BC Greens at 20%. Voters aged 35 to 54 lean Conservative by 14 points. Voters aged 55 and older are more closely matched between the two main parties, according to the Leger release. Exact percentages by age group were not published on the release page.
What does this poll mean for Saturday's vote?
The poll does not determine the result. It shows how 1,072 British Columbians who agreed to take part in an online survey said they intended to vote between October 20 and 22. The margin of error is 3 points, which means the true Conservative lead could be anywhere from 2 to 8 points, or there could be no lead at all. Check your own voting location at elections.bc.ca before you go on October 24.
Is this the only poll published this week?
No. The Angus Reid Institute published a separate poll on October 20, based on fieldwork from October 15 to 19. That poll showed the Conservatives at 46% and the NDP at 43%, a 3-point gap. The two polls use different field dates, different sample sizes, and different methods, which accounts for the difference in the numbers.
Where can I find more polling for this election?
The voche.me polls page for the BC provincial election collects results from multiple firms in one place, showing the numbers from each survey side by side. You can see all of them at /bc/provincial-2026/polls, which updates after each new poll is published and lists the pollster, the dates, and the full breakdown for every survey in the campaign.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Leger poll release, October 22, 2026leger360.com
- BC provincial election polls trackervoche.me
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