Ipsos poll puts Conservatives at 44%, NDP at 39%, one day before voting
An Ipsos survey conducted October 20 to 22 with Global BC shows the BC Conservatives leading the BC NDP by 5 points, with the BC Greens at 13%, as voting day approaches Saturday.
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An Ipsos poll conducted October 20 to 22 for Global BC shows the Conservative Party of BC at 44 per cent and the BC NDP at 39 per cent, one day before voting day.
Ipsos surveyed 1,260 adult British Columbians using a combination of its online panel and live telephone interviews. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservative Party of BC stands at 44 per cent, up 1 point from the previous Ipsos poll. The BC NDP is at 39 per cent, 5 points behind. The BC Greens are at 13 per cent, up 2 points. OneBC stands at 2 per cent and CentreBC at 1 per cent.
These figures exclude the 18 per cent of British Columbians who told Ipsos they were undecided or had no party preference. That group fell 7 points during the campaign.
How firm are voters in their choice
Ipsos found 15 per cent of voters say there is still a good chance they will change their minds at the polling station. Among Green supporters, 27 per cent said they might still switch. Among NDP supporters the figure is 14 per cent, and among Conservative supporters it is 13 per cent.
On party leader favourability, the Global News article reports NDP leader David Eby ended the campaign with 35 per cent favourable impressions and 40 per cent unfavourable.
How voters feel about the current government
Ipsos asked British Columbians whether it was time for another party to take over. Fifty-three per cent said yes. Thirty-one per cent said the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Sixteen per cent were undecided on that question.
How this compares to other polls
Leger published a separate poll on October 22 based on fieldwork from the same October 20 to 22 period. That survey also showed Conservatives at 44 per cent and NDP at 39 per cent, the same top-line numbers. The two surveys use different sample sources and methods. The full set of polls from this campaign is at /bc/provincial-2026/polls.
Voting day is Saturday, October 24. You can find your voting location at elections.bc.ca. Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time.
Questions this story answers
Who conducted this poll and when?
Ipsos conducted this poll in partnership with Global BC. The fieldwork ran from October 20 to 22, 2026. Ipsos surveyed 1,260 adult British Columbians. The sample came from the Ipsos online panel (801 respondents) and from phone interviews with live interviewers using cellphones and landlines (459 respondents). Results were weighted by region, age, gender, and education to match census proportions.
What is the margin of error for this poll?
The overall poll is accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Questions asked only of the online portion of the sample are accurate to within plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is wider among smaller subgroups. These are credibility intervals as used by Ipsos for polls that include online samples.
What are the vote shares in this poll?
The Conservative Party of BC stands at 44%, up 1 point from the previous Ipsos poll. The BC NDP is at 39%, 5 points behind. The BC Greens are at 13%, up 2 points. OneBC stands at 2% and CentreBC at 1%. These figures exclude the 18% of British Columbians who told Ipsos they were undecided or expressed no preference. That undecided group fell 7 points during the campaign.
How certain are voters of their choice?
Ipsos found 15% of voters say there is still a good chance they will change their minds at the polling station. Voters who said they may still change their minds break down by party: 27% of Green supporters said this, compared with 14% of NDP supporters and 13% of Conservative supporters. That means Green support going into voting day is the least secure of the three main parties.
How do voters view the party leaders?
On favourability ratings for party leaders, the Global News article reports that NDP leader David Eby remained stable during the campaign, ending it with 35% favourable impressions and 40% unfavourable impressions. The article does not give comparable final figures for Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson or BC Greens leader Emily Lowan in the same section.
What does the poll say about desire for change?
Ipsos found 53% of British Columbia residents now believe it is time for another provincial party to take over. Thirty-one per cent say the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Sixteen per cent are undecided on that question. The poll describes the theme of 'time for a change' as continuing to resonate with voters.
How does this compare to other polls published this week?
Leger published a separate poll on October 22 based on the same October 20 to 22 fieldwork. The Leger poll showed Conservatives at 44% and NDP at 39%, identical top-line numbers. The two surveys use different methods and different samples; the fact that they show the same result adds weight to each. You can see all polls from this campaign at /bc/provincial-2026/polls.
When and where do I vote on Saturday?
Voting day is Saturday, October 24, 2026. Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time. You vote at your assigned voting place, which you can find at elections.bc.ca using your address. Bring your voter card or acceptable ID. If you have a mail-in ballot you have not yet returned, you must deliver it to Elections BC by 8 p.m. Saturday; it will be counted in the final count held November 6 to 10.
Where can I find all the polls from this campaign?
The voche.me polls page for the BC provincial election shows results from every published survey in one place. You can find it at /bc/provincial-2026/polls. It lists the pollster, the field dates, the sample size, the margin of error, and the full party breakdown for each survey.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Global BC / Global News, October 23, 2026globalnews.ca
- BC provincial election polls trackervoche.me
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