Pollara final poll puts Chow at 48%, Bradford at 40% the day before the vote
Pollara Strategic Insights released its final Toronto mayoral tracking poll on October 25, showing Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford by 8 points among likely voters.
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Pollara Strategic Insights released its final Toronto mayoral tracking poll on October 25, 2026, the day before voting, finding Olivia Chow ahead of Brad Bradford by 8 points among likely voters. The poll was conducted for CUPE Local 416, the Toronto Civic Employees' Union.
Among 1,505 likely voters surveyed between October 16 and 24, 48% said they support or lean toward Chow and 40% said they support or lean toward Bradford. One percent said they would vote for someone else, and 10% remained undecided. Among the 90% of likely voters who had made a decision, Chow leads Bradford 54% to 45%, according to the Pollara report.
The poll covered a field window that included advance voting, which ran from October 6 to 11. Pollara included those who had already voted at an advance poll and asked them how they voted. According to the methodology document, 30% of respondents in the sample had already voted at advance polls.
How the poll was done
Pollara conducted a hybrid online and telephone survey of 1,596 Toronto residents aged 18 and older who are eligible to vote. Of those, 998 participated through an online panel and 598 were reached by live telephone. Results in the report are based on the 1,505 respondents Pollara classified as likely voters.
Data was weighted by region, gender and age based on historical turnout rates. A probability sample of 1,505 would be accurate to plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Pollara notes that online surveys cannot be assigned a formal margin of error; the figure reflects an equivalent probability sample of the same size.
Why the sponsor matters
CUPE Local 416 represents City of Toronto outside workers. The union commissioned this poll. Pollara is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council and says the research was conducted in compliance with CRIC standards. The sponsor is named in the full methodology document Pollara published alongside the results.
What other polls have shown
This is the final tracking poll Pollara published before election day. Other polling firms also released results in the final week. A Liaison Strategies poll published October 21 put Bradford at 49% and Chow at 47%. A Canada Pulse Insights poll published October 23 showed Chow leading Bradford by 5 points. A Mainstreet Research poll from October 20 showed Bradford ahead. The range of recent results is shown at the Toronto polls page.
Voting is on Monday, October 26, 2026. Toronto residents can find their voting place and identification requirements at the City of Toronto's election page.
Questions this story answers
What did the Pollara final poll find?
Pollara Strategic Insights' final Toronto mayoral tracking poll, released October 25, 2026, found Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford 48% to 40% among likely voters. Among decided voters only, Chow leads Bradford 54% to 45%. Ten percent of likely voters remained undecided the day before voting.
When was this poll conducted?
Pollara fielded the poll from October 16 to 24, 2026. The results were released on October 25, the day before the Toronto municipal election on October 26. The field window included the full span of Toronto's advance voting period, which ran from October 6 to 11, meaning some respondents had already cast their ballots at an advance poll before the survey reached them.
How large was the sample for this poll?
Pollara surveyed 1,596 Toronto residents aged 18 and older, using a hybrid method of 998 online panel participants and 598 live telephone interviews. The reported results are based on the 1,505 respondents who qualified as likely voters by having already voted or saying they are certain or likely to vote.
What is the margin of error for this poll?
A probability sample of 1,505 would be accurate to plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to Pollara. The firm notes that online surveys cannot be assigned a formal margin of error; the 2.5 percentage points applies to an equivalent probability sample of that size.
Who paid for this poll?
The research was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the Toronto Civic Employees' Union. Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the work. The sponsor is named in the methodology document that Pollara published alongside the results.
How is this poll different from the Pollara poll published on October 23?
The poll published on October 23, also by Pollara, showed Chow leading Bradford by 5 points, as reported by Global News. The October 25 release is labeled Pollara's final tracking poll and covers a field window that extends three days later, to October 24. The October 23 poll showed a 5-point gap; the October 25 release shows an 8-point gap.
Is this the only final poll before the October 26 Toronto election?
This is the final poll released by Pollara. Other polling firms, including Forum Research, Nanos Research, Mainstreet Research, Liaison Strategies and Canada Pulse Insights, also published polls in the final days of the campaign. Results from those polls are shown at the Toronto polls page on this site.
Where can I vote in the Toronto municipal election?
Toronto's municipal election is on Monday, October 26, 2026. The City of Toronto's website lists voting places by address. The City published a guide to voting day locations and identification requirements. You can also check the Toronto election news page on this site for updates.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Pollara Strategic Insights final poll releasepollara.com
- Pollara methodology and full report (PDF)pollara.com
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