Sutcliffe leads Leiper by 18 points in Nanos poll with 17 days to go
A new Nanos Research poll conducted for CTV News Ottawa shows Mark Sutcliffe with 49 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 31 per cent for Jeff Leiper.
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Incumbent mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds 49 per cent support among decided voters in Ottawa's mayoral race, 18 points ahead of Jeff Leiper at 31 per cent, according to a Nanos Research poll conducted for CTV News Ottawa and published Friday.
Nanos Research surveyed 762 randomly selected Ottawa residents between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8, using telephone and online interviews. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Neil Saravanamuttoo has 12 per cent of decided voters and Alex Lawson has 7 per cent, according to CTV News Ottawa. One per cent of decided voters said they would choose another candidate.
Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos told CTV News that 23 per cent of Ottawa voters remain undecided, meaning, as he put it, "nearly one in four voters are still up for grabs."
Leiper leads downtown, Sutcliffe leads elsewhere
The poll breaks down support by area of the city. In downtown Ottawa, the Nanos survey shows Leiper with 43 per cent of decided voters, compared to 31 per cent for Sutcliffe, 20 per cent for Saravanamuttoo and 7 per cent for Lawson.
Sutcliffe leads in every other part of the city. In west Ottawa, the Nanos survey shows 54 per cent of decided voters choosing Sutcliffe, compared to 27 per cent for Leiper. In east Ottawa, Sutcliffe has 56 per cent of decided voters compared to 29 per cent for Leiper. In rural Ottawa, Sutcliffe has 54 per cent compared to 26 per cent for Leiper.
Younger voters lean toward Leiper
Among voters aged 18 to 34, the poll shows Leiper leading with 51 per cent of decided voters, compared to 30 per cent for Sutcliffe. For voters aged 35 to 54, Sutcliffe leads with 54 per cent compared to 25 per cent for Leiper. Among voters over 55, Sutcliffe has 57 per cent of decided voters compared to 22 per cent for Leiper.
Voting dates
Ottawa's advance voting day is Friday, Oct. 16. The main election day is Monday, Oct. 26. All 14 candidates running for mayor are listed at /on/ottawa-2026/candidates#mayor. CTV News reports that Sutcliffe, Leiper, Saravanamuttoo and Lawson will take part in a CTV News Ottawa debate on Wednesday, Oct. 14 at 10 a.m.
Questions this story answers
What did the Nanos poll find about the Ottawa mayor race?
Nanos Research surveyed 762 Ottawa residents between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8 for CTV News Ottawa. Among decided voters, 49 per cent said they would vote for Mark Sutcliffe, 31 per cent for Jeff Leiper, 12 per cent for Neil Saravanamuttoo, and 7 per cent for Alex Lawson. One per cent said they would vote for another candidate. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How many voters are still undecided in the Ottawa mayoral race?
According to the Nanos Research poll, 23 per cent of Ottawa voters remain undecided as of Oct. 8. Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos said that means nearly one in four voters are still up for grabs. When undecided voters are included, Sutcliffe has the support of 41 per cent of all respondents and Leiper has 24 per cent.
Where does Jeff Leiper lead in the Ottawa mayor race?
The Nanos poll shows Jeff Leiper leads in downtown Ottawa, where 43 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for him, compared to 31 per cent for Sutcliffe, 20 per cent for Saravanamuttoo and 7 per cent for Lawson. Sutcliffe leads in Ottawa's east, west and rural areas, holding more than 50 per cent of decided voters in each of those regions.
How do the candidates compare among younger voters in Ottawa?
The Nanos poll shows Jeff Leiper leads among voters aged 18 to 34, with 51 per cent of that group's decided voters, compared to 30 per cent for Sutcliffe. Among voters aged 35 to 54, Sutcliffe leads with 54 per cent of decided voters compared to 25 per cent for Leiper. Among voters over 55, Sutcliffe has 57 per cent of decided voters compared to 22 per cent for Leiper.
Who is winning among men and women in the Ottawa mayor race?
The Nanos poll shows Sutcliffe with 54 per cent support among men and 43 per cent among women. Leiper has 26 per cent support among men and 37 per cent among women. Saravanamuttoo has 12 per cent among men and 11 per cent among women. Lawson has 7 per cent among men and 8 per cent among women.
When is Ottawa's next advance voting day?
Ottawa's advance voting day is Friday, Oct. 16, with voting places open 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. The main election day is Monday, Oct. 26. You can find voting places and registration information at the City of Ottawa's election website. Profiles of all mayoral candidates, including Mark Sutcliffe and Jeff Leiper, are at voche.me/on/ottawa-2026/candidates.
Who conducted the Ottawa mayoral poll and how was it done?
Nanos Research conducted the poll exclusively for CTV News Ottawa. It surveyed 762 randomly selected Ottawa residents between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8, using both telephone and online interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Will there be a CTV News Ottawa mayoral debate?
Yes. According to CTV News, Sutcliffe, Leiper, Saravanamuttoo and Lawson will take part in a CTV News Ottawa mayoral debate on Wednesday, Oct. 14 at 10 a.m. CTV News says the debate will be available to watch at CTVNewsOttawa.ca and to listen on Newstalk 580 CFRA.
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