Sutcliffe campaign releases internal poll showing incumbent leading Ottawa mayor race

Abacus Data, commissioned and paid by the Sutcliffe campaign, surveyed 1,000 Ottawa voters online in late September 2026. Among the 755 respondents who said they had decided on a candidate, the poll put Mark Sutcliffe at 52 per cent, Jeff Leiper at 16 per cent, and Neil Saravanamuttoo and Alex Lawson both at 14 per cent. Another four per cent of decided voters said they would vote for one of the other ten candidates on the ballot. These figures are from a poll commissioned and paid for by the Sutcliffe campaign and reported by the Ottawa Citizen on October 14, 2026. Read more about the candidates at /on/ottawa-2026/candidates#mayor

Abacus Data conducted the survey on behalf of the Sutcliffe campaign. Abacus chief pollster David Coletto led the work. The survey was collected online from 1,000 respondents in late September 2026. The Ottawa Citizen reported that the poll was commissioned and paid for by the Sutcliffe campaign. Abacus Data is an Ottawa-based polling firm. These details were reported by the Ottawa Citizen on October 14, 2026.

A poll commissioned and paid for by a political campaign is different from an independent poll. Abacus Data is a real polling firm and conducted the survey, but the Sutcliffe campaign chose when to release the results and which figures to publish. The Ottawa Citizen, which reported the poll, noted that the survey used an online panel rather than a probability sample, so a true margin of error cannot be calculated. Abacus said a comparable probability sample of 1,000 respondents would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. An independent Nanos Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Ottawa and conducted October 4 to 8, put Sutcliffe at 49 per cent among decided voters.

CTV News Ottawa commissioned an independent Nanos Research poll, conducted October 4 to 8, 2026, among 762 randomly selected voters. That poll put Sutcliffe at 49 per cent among decided voters, Leiper at 31 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 12 per cent and Lawson at seven per cent. The Ottawa Citizen reported both results on October 14, noting the difference between the two polls. The Nanos poll used a randomly selected sample, while the Abacus poll used an online panel. These figures are all from polls of likely or decided voters and are cited as reported by CTV News Ottawa and the Ottawa Citizen respectively.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Ottawa voters online in late September 2026. Among those, 755 said they had decided on a candidate and 534 were classified as likely voters, meaning decided voters who said they were absolutely certain to vote. Twenty-three per cent of all 1,000 respondents said they were undecided. The Ottawa Citizen reported these sample sizes on October 14, 2026. The poll was commissioned and paid for by the Sutcliffe campaign.

Among the 534 respondents Abacus classified as likely voters, the Sutcliffe campaign's poll put Sutcliffe at 50 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 17 per cent, Leiper at 16 per cent and Lawson at 13 per cent. These figures are from a poll commissioned and paid by the Sutcliffe campaign and were reported by the Ottawa Citizen on October 14, 2026. Likely voters were defined as decided voters who said they were absolutely certain to vote.

There are 14 candidates on the City of Ottawa's list for the mayor's race in the October 26, 2026 election. The Sutcliffe campaign's Abacus poll covered four of them by name: Mark Sutcliffe, Jeff Leiper, Neil Saravanamuttoo and Alex Lawson. Four per cent of decided voters in that poll said they would choose one of the other ten candidates. You can see all 14 candidates at /on/ottawa-2026/candidates#mayor

Voting day in the Ottawa municipal election is October 26, 2026. An advance voting day is October 16, with voting places open from 10 am to 8 pm. Special advance voting days were held October 1 to 4. Voters choose the mayor, one city councillor per ward, and school board trustees.