Lawson campaign poll puts Sutcliffe at 35 per cent with 20 per cent undecided
Mainstreet Research surveyed 638 Ottawa residents between Oct. 14 and Oct. 16 for the Lawson campaign. Mark Sutcliffe led at 35 per cent, with Jeff Leiper at 25 per cent and about 20 per cent of respondents undecided.
Reported. A news outlet found this. voche.me names the outlet and links its report. Read the original report on ottawacitizen.com.
The Ottawa Citizen reported on Oct. 18 that the Alex Lawson campaign has released an internal poll putting Mark Sutcliffe at 35 per cent in the Ottawa mayor race, with about 20 per cent of respondents saying they have not yet decided who to vote for.
Mainstreet Research conducted the survey, asking 638 Ottawa residents between Oct. 14 and Oct. 16 how they would vote for mayor if the election were held that day. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 per cent, at a 95 per cent confidence level.
The poll put Jeff Leiper in second place at 25 per cent, Alex Lawson at 11 per cent, and Neil Saravanamuttoo at 8 per cent. Mark Sutcliffe led at 35 per cent.
The poll was paid for by the Lawson campaign. Quito Maggi, the CEO of Mainstreet Research who commented on the results to the Ottawa Citizen, also served as campaign co-chair and policy adviser for Alex Lawson during the current campaign.
What the undecided share means
With about 20 per cent of respondents still undecided, the final result could differ from what the current numbers suggest. Maggi told the Ottawa Citizen that the undecided vote and strategic voting can still affect the outcome, and that the election could be closer than other polls have implied.
A poll with a large undecided share tells voters less about the outcome than one where most respondents have made a decision. The undecided voters may split in different directions between now and voting day on Oct. 26.
How this compares to other polls
Other polls in this race have shown Sutcliffe with a larger lead. A Nanos Research poll published by CTV Ottawa on Oct. 9 showed Sutcliffe leading among decided voters. The Sutcliffe campaign's own internal poll, conducted by Abacus Data and reported by the Ottawa Citizen on Oct. 14, put Sutcliffe at 52 per cent among decided voters.
The Mainstreet Research poll uses a different methodology: it reports all surveyed voters, including undecided ones, rather than only those who have made up their minds. That choice lowers the top figure for every candidate.
You can find a full list of published polls in this race at /on/ottawa-2026/news.
Voting day is Oct. 26
Ottawa's voting day is Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. Voting places will be open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. If you are not sure where to vote or want to check your registration, visit the City of Ottawa's election page.
Questions this story answers
Who commissioned this poll?
The Alex Lawson campaign commissioned the poll. Mainstreet Research conducted the survey. Quito Maggi, the Mainstreet Research CEO who commented on the results, also worked as campaign co-chair and policy adviser for the Lawson campaign, according to the Ottawa Citizen report. Voters should keep this in mind when reading the poll's interpretation.
What did the poll find?
According to the Ottawa Citizen, the poll put Mark Sutcliffe at 35 per cent of surveyed voters, Jeff Leiper at 25 per cent, Alex Lawson at 11 per cent, and Neil Saravanamuttoo at 8 per cent. About 20 per cent of the 638 people surveyed said they were undecided about who to vote for.
When was the poll conducted and how large was the sample?
Mainstreet Research surveyed 638 Ottawa residents between October 14 and October 16, 2026, asking how they would vote for mayor if the election were held that day. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 per cent, at a 95 per cent confidence level. The Ottawa Citizen reported these figures.
How does this compare to other polls in the mayor race?
A Nanos Research poll published by CTV Ottawa on October 9 showed Sutcliffe with a larger lead. A separate Abacus Data poll commissioned by the Sutcliffe campaign, reported by the Ottawa Citizen on October 14, put Sutcliffe at 52 per cent among decided voters. The Mainstreet Research poll, commissioned by a rival campaign, shows a lower figure for Sutcliffe and a higher undecided share. You can see all published polls on the voche.me polls page.
What did the Sutcliffe campaign say about this poll?
The Ottawa Citizen article is behind a subscription wall. The Sutcliffe campaign's response, if any was given, appeared in the subscriber-only portion of the article and was not available to read. The publicly accessible section of the article contained no response from the Sutcliffe campaign.
Why does it matter that about 20 per cent of voters are undecided?
When a large share of voters has not decided, the outcome is less certain than a poll of decided voters alone would suggest. If a candidate leading at 35 per cent loses most undecided voters, the final margin could be smaller. The Mainstreet Research CEO said in the Ottawa Citizen that undecided and strategic voting can still affect the result. Voters who are still weighing their choices have eight days, until October 26, to make up their minds.
Is this poll independent?
The poll was paid for by the Lawson campaign and the CEO of the polling firm, Quito Maggi, also served as campaign co-chair and policy adviser for Alex Lawson, according to the Ottawa Citizen. A poll commissioned by a campaign, interpreted by a person who advised that campaign, is a poll with a clear interest in the result. The numbers may be accurate. The campaign chose when to release them and how to frame them.
When is voting day in Ottawa?
Voting day for the Ottawa municipal election is Monday, October 26, 2026. Voting places across Ottawa will be open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. If you are not sure where to vote, you can check the City of Ottawa's online tool or visit the Ottawa election information page.
Where can I read the full poll details?
The Ottawa Citizen published the full story, including additional figures and quotes from Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi, on October 18, 2026. The article is behind a subscription wall. The poll's methodology, including the field dates, sample size and margin of error, are the figures the Ottawa Citizen reported.
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