Opinion: In 2024 a majority government in BC depended on 27 votes in one riding. Four polls put 2026 within five points

This article is the opinion of the voche.me editors. The facts it relies on are listed with their sources at the end.

Twenty-seven votes.

Global News reported in November 2024 that after Elections BC finished its final count of that year's election, the BC NDP's 47-seat majority depended on a 27-vote win in one riding, Surrey-Guildford.

A later audit found 28 ballots that had gone uncounted because of what Elections BC called "human error". Counting them cut the lead to 21 votes. A judge then recounted the ballots by hand, and The Canadian Press later gave the final margin as 22 votes.

The legislature has 93 seats. A majority needs 47. The BC NDP had 47.

If you think one vote changes nothing, that riding is the answer.

The count took time as well. The election was on October 19, 2024. Global News published its report on the hand recount on November 7, which is 19 days later. For those 19 days, British Columbians did not know for certain whether they had a majority government.

This election is close too

Four surveys have been published since the election was called on September 22. Here is each one, with its dates and the support it reported for the two largest parties.

• Liaison Strategies, September 26 and 27: Conservative Party of BC 40 per cent, BC NDP 39. A lead of one point.
• Leger, September 24 to 28: 39 per cent to 36. A lead of three points.
• Ipsos, reported by Global News on October 1: 42 per cent to 40. A lead of two points.
• Angus Reid Institute, October 1 to 3: 48 per cent to 43. A lead of five points.

All four put the Conservatives ahead. The leads are one, three, two and five points.

What a poll cannot tell you

A survey asks a sample of people, so its result has a range. Liaison Strategies gave its own range as 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Its reported lead was one point. The lead is smaller than the range.

A province-wide poll also measures the whole province. The election is 93 separate contests. Your riding is won by the candidate with the most votes in your riding, and none of these four surveys reports a result for it.

The regions differ from the province. In the Leger survey the Conservatives led by three points across British Columbia. In Metro Vancouver the same survey had the BC NDP ahead, 39 per cent to 37. On Vancouver Island it had the two parties tied at 37. Across the province it had the BC Greens at 13 per cent, and OneBC and CentreBC at five per cent each.

The ballots differ too. The Angus Reid Institute noted that the Conservatives have a candidate in all 93 ridings, the BC NDP in 92 and the BC Greens in 73. So 20 ridings have no Green candidate, and one has no NDP candidate. A province-wide share for a party says nothing about a riding where that party is not on the ballot.

The surveys also reach people in different ways. Liaison Strategies phoned a random sample of 1,000 British Columbians with a recorded questionnaire. The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 1,013 adults online, and 846 of them had chosen a party or leaned toward one.

Many voters are still deciding. The Angus Reid Institute found that 46 per cent of British Columbians chose the strongest level of certainty about their vote. The other 54 per cent did not.

What can be said for reading the polls

A fair reader should weigh two points.

Four surveys by four firms agree on the order of the two largest parties. That agreement is real information.

Surrey-Guildford is one riding of 93. We chose it because the 2024 majority depended on it.

We have weighed these points. Nobody knows before the count which riding will have this year's smallest lead.

What we ask

Vote, whatever the polls say on the day. A poll that shows your party ahead is a reason to vote, and so is a poll that shows it behind.

Bring one person. With a 27-vote lead, 28 more votes for the second-place candidate would have changed the result. That is 14 households of two.

Pick your day now. Elections BC lists these dates:

• Advance voting from October 16 to October 21. Victoria News reported the hours as 8 am to 8 pm Pacific time.
• By mail. October 18 is the last day to request a package online or by phone.
• Final voting day, October 24, from 8 am to 8 pm Pacific time.

Find the candidates in your riding on the candidates page. Our other articles look at what each leader put first and at the two elections in eight days.

Elections BC plans its final count for November 6 to 10. Make sure your ballot is in it.