BC small business confidence fell below neutral in October, with more employers planning staff cuts
The CFIB Business Barometer shows BC's 12-month outlook index dropped to 49.0 in October from 54.2 in September, and the share of businesses planning to reduce full-time staff rose to 19 per cent.
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BC small business confidence fell below neutral in October 2026, with more employers planning to cut staff than to hire, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business Business Barometer. Business in Vancouver reported the findings on November 3, citing Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1.
What the barometer showed
The BC 12-month outlook index fell to 49.0 in October from 54.2 in September, dropping below the neutral mark of 50 for the first time since spring. The three-month index fell to 43.3 from 47.2.
Business in Vancouver reported that confidence was among the lowest of the large provinces and below the 60-to-65-point range that the CFIB associates with moderate economic growth.
Hiring plans weakened
The share of BC businesses planning to reduce full-time staffing over the next three months rose to 19 per cent in October from 16 per cent in September, while the share planning to increase staff held at 15 per cent. Business in Vancouver reported that the widening gap reflects weak sales growth and financial pressure.
Why businesses said demand was thin
Insufficient demand was the leading constraint on business growth, cited by 49 per cent of respondents. Skilled labour shortages were reported by 39 per cent, and 38 per cent cited limited working capital or cash flow.
Operating costs added to the pressure. Tax and regulatory costs were cited by 67 per cent of businesses, wage costs by 63 per cent, fuel costs by 57 per cent and insurance costs by 55 per cent.
Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1, told Business in Vancouver that US tariffs, higher borrowing costs and the provincial election call contributed to the weaker reading.
Retail sales
BC retail sales rose on a seasonally adjusted basis in August 2026, reaching $10 billion, up 2.1 per cent from July and ahead of the national increase of 1.2 per cent. The gain reversed July's 1.8 per cent decline. On an unadjusted, inflation-adjusted basis, retail volumes declined 0.3 per cent year-over-year.
Gasoline station sales rose 15.3 per cent year-over-year to $1.1 billion. Food and beverage retailers fell 2.8 per cent to $2.1 billion. Clothing and accessories fell 1.1 per cent, the first decline of the year for that category.
What comes next
Business in Vancouver reported that the consumer spending outlook remains subdued heading into year-end. With demand thin and costs high, BC businesses were cutting rather than adding jobs as of October. The CFIB Business Barometer is published monthly and tracks conditions across all provinces. Workers and employers can follow monthly updates at the CFIB's website.
Questions this story answers
What did the CFIB Business Barometer show for BC in October 2026?
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business Business Barometer for October 2026 showed BC's 12-month outlook index fell to 49.0 from 54.2 in September, dropping below the neutral threshold of 50. The three-month index fell further, to 43.3 from 47.2. Business in Vancouver reported the figures on November 3, 2026, citing Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1.
What share of BC businesses planned to cut staff in October 2026?
According to the CFIB Business Barometer for October 2026, 19 per cent of BC businesses planned to reduce full-time staffing over the next three months, up from 16 per cent in September. At the same time, 15 per cent planned to increase full-time staff, unchanged from September. That gap means more BC businesses were planning cuts than hiring in October.
What were the main obstacles BC businesses cited in October 2026?
According to the CFIB Business Barometer, 49 per cent of BC businesses cited insufficient demand as the leading constraint on growth in October 2026. Skilled labour shortages were reported by 39 per cent, and 38 per cent cited limited working capital or cash flow. Tax and regulatory costs were cited by 67 per cent, while 63 per cent cited wage costs, 57 per cent fuel costs and 55 per cent insurance costs.
How did BC retail sales perform in August 2026?
On a seasonally adjusted basis, BC retail sales rose 2.1 per cent month-on-month in August 2026 to $10 billion, reversing July's 1.8 per cent decline and outpacing the national increase of 1.2 per cent. On an unadjusted basis, sales increased 2.7 per cent year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, retail volumes declined an estimated 0.3 per cent year-over-year. The figures were reported by Business in Vancouver on November 3, 2026, citing Statistics Canada data.
Why did BC small business confidence weaken in October 2026?
Business in Vancouver reported that Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1, identified US tariffs, higher borrowing costs and the provincial election call as factors that contributed to weaker BC small business confidence in October 2026. Subdued demand and persistent cost pressures also weighed on business prospects.
How does BC's business confidence compare to other provinces?
Business in Vancouver reported that BC's confidence was among the lowest of the large provinces in October 2026, below the 60-to-65-point range associated with moderate economic growth. The 12-month index fell to 49.0, below the neutral threshold of 50.
Which cost pressures did BC businesses report most in October 2026?
According to the CFIB Business Barometer for October 2026, 67 per cent of BC businesses cited tax and regulatory costs as a constraint, making it the most-reported cost pressure. Wage costs were cited by 63 per cent, fuel costs by 57 per cent, and insurance costs by 55 per cent. Insufficient demand remained the leading barrier to growth overall, cited by 49 per cent of respondents, as Business in Vancouver reported on November 3, 2026.
What can BC workers and business owners do with this information?
Workers in BC can use this data to understand the current hiring environment: more employers are planning staff cuts than increases heading into the end of 2026. Business owners can compare their own situation to the province-wide picture. The CFIB Business Barometer surveys are conducted monthly. Business in Vancouver covers the BC economy at biv.com.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Business in Vancouver, November 3, 2026biv.com
- CFIB Business Barometercfib-fcei.ca
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