Angus Reid poll puts BC Conservatives at 46%, NDP at 43% with four days until voting
A new Angus Reid poll conducted Oct. 15 to 19 shows the Conservative Party of BC leading by three points among decided and leaning voters, with vote certainty rising sharply.
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The Conservative Party of BC leads the BC NDP by three points among decided voters with four days left before voting day, according to a new poll by the Angus Reid Institute. The institute conducted an online survey of 793 British Columbian adults from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026.
Among decided and leaning voters (723 of the 793), 46% said they support the Conservative Party of BC and 43% said they support the BC NDP, according to the Angus Reid Institute release. The BC Greens stood at 8% and other parties at 3%.
The Conservative lead narrowed from its high point. The party peaked at 48% in early October, and the NDP has closed the gap since then.
Voter certainty rising for both parties
More voters have made up their minds since the campaign began. The Angus Reid Institute found that 56% of respondents said they were certain of which party they would support, up from 46% who said the same two weeks earlier.
Conservative supporters are more locked in than NDP supporters. Among people who said they would vote Conservative, 73% said they were certain of their choice. Among people who said they would vote NDP, that figure was 54%.
The poll also found that Conservative voters are holding on to their 2024 support more tightly. Among people who voted Conservative in 2024, 89% said they are supporting the party again. Among people who voted NDP in 2024, 74% said they are supporting the party again.
Asked about the best premier
When asked which leader would make the best premier of British Columbia, the Angus Reid poll found respondents split three ways. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson came first at 36%, BC NDP leader David Eby came second at 34%, and 30% said neither.
BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan was not included in the premier question. The BC Greens stood at 8% in vote intention among decided and leaning voters.
Poll details
The Angus Reid Institute conducted the survey online from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026, among 793 British Columbian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
You can see how this poll compares with others published during the campaign at /bc/provincial-2026/polls.
Voting day in the BC provincial election is Saturday, Oct. 24. Advance voting is open through Tuesday, Oct. 21 until 8 p.m. at locations across the province.
Questions this story answers
What does the Angus Reid poll from October 15 to 19 show for the BC Conservatives?
Among decided and leaning voters surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026, 46% said they supported the Conservative Party of BC. That is a three-point lead over the BC NDP, which stood at 43%. The sample for decided and leaning voters was 723 people. The Conservatives peaked at 48% earlier in October before the NDP closed the gap.
What does the same poll show for the BC NDP?
The BC NDP stood at 43% among decided and leaning voters in the Angus Reid poll conducted Oct. 15 to 19, 2026. That is three points behind the Conservative Party of BC at 46%. The BC Greens were at 8% and other parties at 3%.
What does the poll show for the BC Greens?
The BC Green Party stood at 8% among decided and leaning voters in the Angus Reid poll conducted Oct. 15 to 19, 2026. Leader Emily Lowan has been active in the final days of the campaign. You can follow the BC Greens at /bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-green-party.
Who does the poll say would make the best premier?
The Angus Reid poll asked all 793 respondents which leader would make the best premier of British Columbia. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson came first at 36%, BC NDP leader David Eby came second at 34%, and 30% said neither. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How certain are BC voters about their choice?
In the Angus Reid poll from Oct. 15 to 19, 56% of respondents said they were certain of which party they would support. That is up from 46% who said the same two weeks earlier. Among Conservative supporters, 73% said they had locked in their choice. Among NDP supporters, that figure was 54%. The uncertain portion of the electorate has shrunk since the campaign began.
How loyal are 2024 voters being to their parties in 2026?
The Angus Reid poll found that 89% of people who voted Conservative in 2024 are supporting the Conservative Party of BC again in 2026. Among those who voted BC NDP in 2024, 74% are supporting the NDP again. Those figures are based on sub-samples of 297 Conservative 2024 voters and 303 NDP 2024 voters surveyed between Oct. 15 and 19.
What is the margin of error for this poll?
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026, among a randomized sample of 793 British Columbian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
When is voting day in the BC provincial election?
Voting day in the 2026 BC provincial election is Saturday, Oct. 24. Advance voting is open until 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 21. You can find your voting location and more information through Elections BC.
Where can I see how other polls compare?
voche.me tracks all published polls for the BC provincial election at /bc/provincial-2026/polls. Each entry shows the pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. The tracker also shows a seat estimate based on the newest polls and 2024 district-level results. Previous Angus Reid polls in this campaign showed the Conservatives at 48% in early October (Oct. 5 poll) and 41% at the start of the campaign in mid-September.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Angus Reid Institute poll release, Oct. 20, 2026angusreid.org
- Vancouver Sun coverage of the poll, Oct. 20, 2026vancouversun.com
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