Ottawa auditor finds OC Transpo buses ran late 37% of mornings in January 2026 as scheduling falls behind traffic
Ottawa's auditor general found OC Transpo's bus schedules are based on 2023 data that no longer reflects road conditions, leaving 29% of weekday routes with run times that varied by 10% or more from actual travel times.
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Ottawa's auditor general found that OC Transpo's bus schedules are built on traffic data from 2023 that no longer reflects current road conditions, that buses had enough vehicles to deliver peak afternoon service on only 29 of 62 weekdays from January to March 2026, and that the formal standards used to plan the transit network have not been updated since 2005.
The Audit of Bus Service Planning and Scheduling, released by Auditor General Nathalie Gougeon in June 2026, examined how OC Transpo plans its bus routes and schedules. OC Transpo's 2026 bus operations budget is $419 million, part of a total $905 million transit budget for the year.
Run times no longer reflect the roads
Each bus trip is assigned a scheduled run time, set at the 85th percentile of actual trip times so that most buses will finish on time. OC Transpo last updated its run times for the launch of New Ways to Bus on April 27, 2025, using data collected in 2023. The audit found that because the launch was delayed, those run times became inaccurate as traffic conditions across Ottawa changed.
For weekday routes of 30 minutes or more, 29% had run times that varied by 10% or more from actual travel times as of the fall 2025 service booking, the audit found. Of those routes with large gaps, 86% had too little scheduled time and 14% had too much.
By the spring 2026 service booking, run time adjustments had been made for seven routes, but 35 routes still had run times off by more than 10%.
The scheduling gaps showed up in performance. During afternoon peak periods from August to November 2025, routes started late on 19% of trips. In January 2026, start times were late 37% of the time, with 24% of trips starting more than 10 minutes late.
For the 25 frequent routes tracked for regularity, 5 (20%) met the 85% target on average from September 2025 to the end of January 2026 weekday service. For the 78 non-frequent, non-school routes, 3 (4%) met the punctuality target. None of the 73 school routes met the target.
Not enough buses or operators
The base scheduled number of buses required to deliver peak afternoon service under New Ways to Bus was 540, the audit found. Bus shortages led to a decision to cut that to 524 for the spring 2025 booking. In January 2026, OC Transpo reduced the requirement to 500 and removed additional trips from the schedule.
Even after those reductions, OC Transpo met its peak afternoon bus requirement on only 29 of 62 weekdays from January to March 2026, the audit found.
For January and February 2026, the bus fleet was 67% available on average each day. The audit notes that a healthy fleet typically has 80% of its vehicles available. The Toronto Transit Commission has maintained bus availability averaging 110% for several years.
Operator shortages compounded the problem. The audit found that from January 4 to March 1, 2026, 28% of trip cancellations were attributed to operator availability. Based on OC Transpo's own projections, the operator shortage is not expected to be resolved until January 2027.
Service standards from 2005
OC Transpo's formal service planning standards were last updated in 2005. The two documents that set those standards, the Transit Service and Fare Policy Manual and the Transit System Management Policies, are no longer publicly accessible, the audit found.
Management told auditors that the coverage target from those standards, requiring 95% of residents in the base route network to live within 800 metres of all-day service, was already not being met when last analyzed in 2014 and was likely never achievable. The 2005 standards also set a target for 55% of operating costs to be covered by fares; the figure used in the 2026 budget was 33%, the audit found.
The audit found that New Ways to Bus was designed to reduce annual bus operating costs by $10 million, equal to 70,000 service hours a year. Because service standards had not been updated, the redesign lacked a current framework to assess trade-offs. No formal post-implementation review has been conducted or planned.
Nine recommendations, all accepted
Management agreed with all 9 recommendations. The most immediate step is building a more conservative buffer of buses and operators into service planning, estimated for completion in Q3 2026. The audit also calls for a systematic method to update and monitor run times (Q1 2027), deadhead travel time updates (Q2 2027), recovery time rebalancing (Q3 2027), a revised long-term bus fleet plan including spare ratios for each vehicle type (Q2 2027), and updated and consolidated service standards with a mandatory 10-year review cycle (Q3 2028). The longest timeline is for aligning routes with the updated standards and completing a formal review of service priorities with Council input (Q4 2028).
Residents can read the full report at oagottawa.ca. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe, who has committed to a $95 monthly transit pass, has his transit promises tracked at the Ottawa promise tracker.
Questions this story answers
What did Ottawa's auditor general find about OC Transpo bus service planning?
The Ottawa Auditor General's June 2026 Audit of Bus Service Planning and Scheduling found three main problems: bus run times are based on 2023 data that no longer reflects road conditions due to increased traffic, there are not enough buses and operators to reliably deliver peak service, and the service standards that guide how OC Transpo plans routes have not been updated since 2005. Management agreed with all 9 recommendations in the report.
How often were OC Transpo buses running late according to the audit?
The audit found that in January 2026, bus start times during the afternoon peak period were late 37% of the time, with 24% of trips starting more than 10 minutes late. For the 25 frequent routes tracked for regularity, only 5 (20%) met the 85% target on average from September 2025 to January 2026. For the 78 non-frequent, non-school routes, only 3 (4%) met the punctuality target of 85% over the same period. None of the 73 school routes met the punctuality target.
Why are OC Transpo's bus schedules inaccurate?
The audit found that OC Transpo's bus run times were last updated for the launch of New Ways to Bus in April 2025, using data collected in 2023. Because New Ways to Bus was delayed, run times became inaccurate as traffic patterns changed across the city. For weekday routes of 30 minutes or more, 29% had scheduled run times that varied by 10% or more from actual travel times as of the fall 2025 service booking. Of those routes with large gaps, 86% had insufficient scheduled run time, meaning buses were given less time than they needed to complete trips.
Did OC Transpo have enough buses to run its schedule?
The audit found that from January to March 2026, OC Transpo had sufficient buses to deliver its peak afternoon service on only 29 of 62 weekdays (47%), even after trips had been removed from the schedule to reduce the required bus count. In January 2026, OC Transpo cut its peak bus requirement from 524 to 500 and removed additional trips from the schedule to manage the shortage. For January and February 2026, only 67% of the total bus fleet was available on average on a given day, below the industry standard of 80%.
When will OC Transpo have enough bus operators?
The audit found that there is a current bus operator shortage that is not expected to be resolved until January 2027. From January 4 to March 1, 2026, operator availability caused 28% of trip cancellations. OC Transpo projected the shortage would continue through most of 2026. Management's response to the audit says the General Manager has already implemented changes to recruitment and training to prioritize filling vacancies, and is advancing a long-term fleet plan. The estimated completion for the resources and planning response is Q3 2026.
What is New Ways to Bus and what did the audit find about it?
New Ways to Bus was OC Transpo's bus network redesign, launched on April 27, 2025. It removed 45 routes, introduced 18 new routes and modified 63 existing routes. The redesign was driven by the goal of reducing annual bus operating costs by $10 million, equal to a reduction of 70,000 bus service hours a year. The audit found that fleet availability was not assessed as a primary constraint when planning the redesign, and that there was limited public engagement after the Bus Route Review was presented in November 2023. No formal post-implementation review to measure whether the redesign delivered its intended benefits has been conducted or planned.
What are OC Transpo's service standards and why does the audit say they are outdated?
OC Transpo's formal service standards are set out in two documents published in 2005: the Transit Service and Fare Policy Manual and the Transit System Management Policies. The audit found these documents are no longer publicly accessible and have not been updated to reflect major changes to the transit network since then. For example, the 2005 standards require 95% of residents in the base route network to live within 800 metres of all-day service, but management confirmed the last analysis of that target was completed in 2014, when the target was already not being met. The revenue-cost ratio in the 2005 standards targeted 55% of operating costs covered by fares; the figure used for the 2026 budget was 33%.
What are the key recommendations and their deadlines?
The audit issued 9 recommendations, all agreed to by management. The key steps are: develop a method to systematically update and monitor bus run times (Q1 2027); update deadhead travel times on a risk basis (Q2 2027); rebalance recovery times to meet collective agreement requirements (Q3 2027); take a more conservative approach to allocating buses and operators, including building a buffer (Q3 2026); review and update the long-term bus fleet plan including spare ratios for each vehicle type (Q2 2027); formalize transit service priorities and present them to Council (Q1 2028); update and consolidate service standards and establish a 10-year review cycle (Q3 2028); align routes with updated standards before the full opening of Stage 2 LRT (Q4 2028); and establish a process to monitor and report performance against all service standards to Transit Committee (Q2 2027).
Where can Ottawa residents follow OC Transpo's response to the audit?
The full audit report is available on the Ottawa Office of the Auditor General's website at oagottawa.ca. The Transit Committee reviews OC Transpo performance reports and management responses to audits through the City's meetings calendar at pub-ottawa.escribemeetings.com. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe's promises on transit, including his commitment to a $95 monthly transit pass, are tracked at the Ottawa promise tracker at /on/ottawa-2026/tracker.
Sources
The pages this story draws on. Open one to check a claim yourself.
- Ottawa Auditor General: Audit of Bus Service Planning and Scheduling, June 2026media-002-ca.cdn.govstack.com
- Ottawa Office of the Auditor General: Audit Reportsoagottawa.ca
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