---
title: "Polling in nine Toronto wards shows tight council races before Monday's vote"
description: "Mainstreet Research and Forum Research have released results for nine ward races. In Scarborough-Rouge Park, Beaches-East York, York South-Weston and Scarborough Southwest, leads are within single digits."
canonical_url: "https://voche.me/on/toronto-2026/news/ward-polls-mainstreet-forum-october-22"
last_updated: "2026-10-24T13:49:19.567Z"
---

New polling from Mainstreet Research and Forum Research covers nine Toronto ward races ahead of Monday's vote, reported by NOW Toronto. Several races show leads of fewer than 10 points.

## What Mainstreet Research found

Mainstreet Research surveyed 894 Toronto residents between October 14 and 16, 2026 by IVR phone (landline and cellphone). Results are at a 95 per cent confidence level, with separate margins of error for each ward.

In [Ward 4 (Parkdale-High Park)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-4-parkdale-high-park), [Nadia Guerrera](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/nadia-guerrera) leads with 35.2 per cent, [Diana Chan McNally](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/diana-chan-mcnally) is at 29.2 per cent, and Adam Pham is at 15.5 per cent. Margin of error: plus or minus 6.1 points.

In [Ward 10 (Spadina-Fort York)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-10-spadina-fort-york), [Ausma Malik](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/ausma-malik) leads at 43.2 per cent, Ian Cunningham is at 37.7 per cent, and Paul Nash at 9.2 per cent. Margin of error: plus or minus 5.7 points.

In [Ward 25 (Scarborough-Rouge Park)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-25-scarborough-rouge-park), [Shawn Allen](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/shawn-allen) leads at 37.7 per cent, [Neethan Shan](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/neethan-shan) at 28.5 per cent, and Zakir Patel at 12.9 per cent. Margin of error: plus or minus 5.3 points.

## What Forum Research found

Forum Research polled six additional ward races. NOW Toronto reports the results, but Forum did not release field dates or margins of error for any of these surveys. The sample sizes only appear for some wards.

In [Ward 19 (Beaches-East York)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-19-beaches-east-york), [Nate Erskine-Smith](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/nate-erskine-smith) leads at 32 per cent, Natalie Johnson at 26 per cent, James Dann at 22 per cent, and Jennie Worden at 16 per cent (1,084 voters surveyed). Brad Bradford left this seat to run for mayor.

In [Ward 5 (York South-Weston)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-5-york-south-weston), [Frances Nunziata](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/frances-nunziata) leads at 34 per cent, Daniel DiGiorgio at 30 per cent, and Chiara Padovani at 28 per cent (543 voters surveyed).

In [Ward 14 (Toronto-Danforth)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-14-toronto-danforth), [Sara Ehrhardt](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/sara-ehrhardt) leads at 40 per cent, Mary Fragedakis at 26 per cent, and Dianne Saxe at 22 per cent (604 voters surveyed).

In [Ward 20 (Scarborough Southwest)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-20-scarborough-southwest), [Parthi Kandavel](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/parthi-kandavel) leads at 41 per cent and [Kevin Rupasinghe](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/kevin-rupasinghe) at 38 per cent (538 voters surveyed).

In [Ward 13 (Toronto Centre)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-13-toronto-centre), [Chris Moise](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/chris-moise) leads at 34 per cent, Daniel Tate at 30 per cent, and Curran Stikuts at 25 per cent.

In [Ward 23 (Scarborough North)](/on/toronto-2026/races/councillor/ward-23-scarborough-north), [Shaun Chen](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/shaun-chen) leads at 42 per cent, [Jamaal Myers](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/jamaal-myers) at 34 per cent, and [Han Dong](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/han-dong) at 12 per cent (512 voters surveyed).

Forum Research did not release field dates or a margin of error for any of its ward surveys in this report.

Toronto votes on Monday, October 26. Find your polling place at toronto.ca/elections, and see each ward's candidates at [voche.me/on/toronto-2026/candidates](/on/toronto-2026/candidates).

## Sitemap

See the full [sitemap](/on/toronto-2026/sitemap.md) for all pages.