---
title: "Three new polls disagree on who leads Toronto's mayoral race"
description: "Three polling firms published results on October 21. Two put Bradford ahead by narrow margins, while a third commissioned by CUPE Local 416 puts Chow ahead by seven points."
canonical_url: "https://voche.me/on/toronto-2026/news/toronto-mayoral-polls-three-firms-october-21"
last_updated: "2026-10-22T02:50:16.527Z"
---

Three polling firms published results on October 21, five days before Toronto's October 26 mayoral election, and they point in different directions on whether [Brad Bradford](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/brad-bradford) or [Olivia Chow](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/olivia-chow) leads.

Global News reported all three sets of results on October 21.

## What Mainstreet found

Mainstreet Research placed Bradford at 48.9 per cent and Chow at 47.5 per cent. The firm conducted its survey between October 16 and October 18, 2026, with a sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over living in Toronto. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet, said Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York while Chow is ahead in Scarborough and downtown Toronto.

## What Liaison found

Liaison Strategies placed Bradford at 49 per cent and Chow at 47 per cent. The firm surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from October 18 to October 19, 2026, using conventional phone and interactive voice recording technology. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison, described the race as showing no clear favourite, according to Global News.

## What Pollara found

Pollara Strategic Insights placed Chow at 53 per cent and Bradford at 46 per cent among decided voters. Pollara conducted its survey from October 13 to October 19, 2026, covering 1,099 Toronto residents through a combination of online panel (695 participants) and live telephone interviews (404 participants).

Because the sample includes an online panel, Pollara says no margin of error applies to this poll. A purely telephone sample of 1,099 would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Pollara poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the union representing City of Toronto Water workers. CUPE Local 416 had endorsed Chow for mayor before the poll was conducted.

## What this means for voters

## Advance voting is over. Voters cast their ballots on election day Monday, October 26, 2026. Candidate pages for both [Brad Bradford](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/brad-bradford) and [Olivia Chow](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/olivia-chow) are at [/on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor](/on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor). Poll results for all firms are tracked at [/on/toronto-2026/polls](/on/toronto-2026/polls).

## Sitemap

See the full [sitemap](/on/toronto-2026/sitemap.md) for all pages.