---
title: "New poll puts Olivia Chow 2.5 points ahead of Brad Bradford with three weeks left"
description: "A Mainstreet Research poll released 9 October puts Chow at 40.8 per cent and Bradford at 38.3 per cent, with the gap within the margin of error."
canonical_url: "https://voche.me/on/toronto-2026/news/mainstreet-research-poll-chow-bradford-october-9"
last_updated: "2026-10-10T04:10:29.291Z"
---

A new poll shows the Toronto mayoral race has narrowed to a statistical tie with three weeks until voting day on 26 October.

Mainstreet Research put incumbent mayor [Olivia Chow](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/olivia-chow) at 40.8 per cent support and city councillor [Brad Bradford](/on/toronto-2026/candidates/brad-bradford) at 38.3 per cent in a survey of 1,000 Toronto residents conducted on 6 and 7 October. CBC News reported the results on Friday.

The gap between the two candidates is 2.5 percentage points. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Quito Maggi, the president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, told CBC News the result was "statistically tied."

"It appears the Bradford campaign may have some momentum," Maggi said in a news release. He said the chances of a Chow re-election were "less and less certain."

Chow held a six-point lead in Mainstreet's previous survey of the race, conducted at the end of September.

The new poll also asked respondents to choose directly between the two candidates following Chris Alexander's withdrawal from the race on 6 October. In that question, Chow took 44.7 per cent and Bradford took 41.5 per cent. Ten per cent of respondents were still undecided in the main question.

The poll found a split along gender and age lines. Chow's support is higher among female voters and younger people. Bradford draws more support from older voters and from men.

Bradford's campaign responded in a news release. Spokesperson Laryssa Waler was quoted by CBC News: "The Mayor has a plan to scare you. That's the whole campaign. Change is within our grasp. To change the city, we need to change the mayor, and 17 days from now that's exactly what we intend to do."

CBC News said it had reached out to the Chow campaign for comment but had not received one.

Mainstreet reached 1,000 Toronto residents by interactive voice recording on both landlines and cellphones. The resulting data was weighted to match targets from the 2021 census. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Advance voting is open at 50 locations across Toronto through 11 October. Election day is 26 October. You can find the full candidate list and advance voting locations on the City of Toronto's website or at [/on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor](/on/toronto-2026/candidates#mayor).

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