---
title: "BC election polls 2026: every poll and a seat estimate | voche.me"
canonical_url: "https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/polls"
last_updated: "2026-10-11T21:26:11.620Z"
meta:
description: "Every published poll on the October 24, 2026 BC election since September 1, with its source, and a seat estimate for all 93 districts from the 2024 results."
"og:description": "Every published poll on the October 24, 2026 BC election since September 1, with its source, and a seat estimate for all 93 districts from the 2024 results."
"og:title": "BC election polls 2026: every poll and a seat estimate"
"twitter:description": "Every published poll on the October 24, 2026 BC election since September 1, with its source, and a seat estimate for all 93 districts from the 2024 results."
"twitter:title": "BC election polls 2026: every poll and a seat estimate"
---
**
BC PROVINCIAL 2026 · PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
# Who is ahead
in British Columbia?*The published polls, on one page.*
12 polls by 6 firms: every published poll we found with interviews since September 1, 2026. Every poll figure is shown as the firm published it, with its dates, its sample size and a link to the report.
The count that decides the election is the vote on October 24, 2026.
Latest published poll
## Conservative leads NDP by 6 points.
Liaison Strategies · Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 · 1,000 British Columbians · margin of error ±3.1 points
1. [1C**Conservative Party of BC****43%**+3 since September 27](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/conservative-party-of-bc)
2. [2N**BC NDP****37%**-2 since September 27](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-ndp)
3. [3G**BC Green Party****10%**-1 since September 27](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-green-party)
4. [4O**OneBC****4%**+1 since September 27](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/onebc)
- Conservative Party of BC**43%**
- BC NDP**37%**
- BC Green Party**10%**
- OneBC**4%**
Share of decided and leaning voters, as published. Changes compare with the same firm’s earlier poll. A poll measures opinion only on the days it was taken.
01 / Over time
## How the race has moved.
Each dot is one poll, placed on the last day of its interviews.
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: BC NDP**37%**
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**43%**
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: BC Green Party**10%**
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: OneBC**4%**
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: Centre BC**3%**
- Liaison Strategies, Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026: Other**4%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Oct 1 to Oct 3, 2026: BC NDP**43%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Oct 1 to Oct 3, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**48%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Oct 1 to Oct 3, 2026: BC Green Party**7%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Oct 1 to Oct 3, 2026: Other**2%**
- Mainstreet Research, Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026: BC NDP**37.2%**
- Mainstreet Research, Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**44.7%**
- Mainstreet Research, Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026: BC Green Party**11.2%**
- Mainstreet Research, Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026: OneBC**5.7%**
- Mainstreet Research, Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026: Centre BC**1.1%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: BC NDP**40%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**42%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: BC Green Party**10%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: OneBC**3%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: Centre BC**3%**
- Ipsos, Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026: Other**2%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: BC NDP**36%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: BC Green Party**13%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: OneBC**5%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: Centre BC**5%**
- Léger, Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026: Other**2%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: BC NDP**41%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: BC Green Party**11%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: OneBC**4%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: Centre BC**3%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026: Other**3%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: BC NDP**39%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**40%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: BC Green Party**11%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: OneBC**3%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Centre BC**4%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026: Other**3%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: BC NDP**35%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**43%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: BC Green Party**12%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: OneBC**4%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: Centre BC**3%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026: Other**3%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: BC NDP**41%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**36%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: BC Green Party**12%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: OneBC**4%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: Centre BC**4%**
- Liaison Strategies, Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026: Other**3%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 4 to Sep 18, 2026: BC NDP**43%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 4 to Sep 18, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 4 to Sep 18, 2026: BC Green Party**14%**
- Innovative Research Group, Sep 4 to Sep 18, 2026: Other**4%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 8 to Sep 15, 2026: BC NDP**41%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 8 to Sep 15, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**37%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 8 to Sep 15, 2026: BC Green Party**13%**
- Angus Reid Institute, Sep 8 to Sep 15, 2026: Other**9%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: BC NDP**45%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: Conservative Party of BC**35%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: BC Green Party**10%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: OneBC**2%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: Centre BC**4%**
- Ipsos, Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026: Other**4%**
02 / Seat estimate
## What the polls would mean in seats.
voche.me’s own estimate, from the newest poll of each of 6 firms and the 2024 result in every district. 47 of 93 seats make a majority.
- Conservative Party of BC**53 seats**
- BC NDP**38 seats**
- BC Green Party**2 seats**
47 seats: majority
- [Conservative Party of BC**53 seats**- Range across the 6 polls
- 41 to 58
- Won in 2024
- 44
- Poll average
- 42.6%
- Share in 2024
- 43.3%
- Change
- -0.7 points
](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/conservative-party-of-bc)
- [BC NDP**38 seats**- Range across the 6 polls
- 33 to 50
- Won in 2024
- 47
- Poll average
- 39%
- Share in 2024
- 44.9%
- Change
- -5.9 points
](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-ndp)
- [BC Green Party**2 seats**- Range across the 6 polls
- 1 to 2
- Won in 2024
- 2
- Poll average
- 10.4%
- Share in 2024
- 8.2%
- Change
- +2.2 points
](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-green-party)
The same rule, run on each poll alone
| Poll | Conservative | NDP | Green |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Liaison StrategiesOct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 | 55 | 36 | 2 |
| Angus Reid InstituteOct 1 to Oct 3, 2026 | 56 | 36 | 1 |
| Mainstreet ResearchSep 30 to Oct 1, 2026 | 58 | 33 | 2 |
| IpsosSep 25 to Sep 29, 2026 | 52 | 39 | 2 |
| LégerSep 24 to Sep 28, 2026 | 53 | 38 | 2 |
| Innovative Research GroupSep 25 to Sep 28, 2026 | 41 | 50 | 2 |
| Average of the 6 | 53 | 38 | 2 |
03 / District by district
## Where the polls agree and where they split.
In 75 districts every one of the 6 polls gives the lead to the same party. In 18 they give it to different parties. The closest estimates come first.
| District | 2024 result | Estimate from the poll average | Polls that agree |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Ladysmith-Oceanside](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/ladysmith-oceanside) | NDPby 6 points (2,047 votes) | NDPahead by 0.8 points | 3 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Vancouver-Yaletown](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-yaletown) | NDPby 6.4 points (1,161 votes) | NDPahead by 1.2 points | 3 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Surrey-Fleetwood](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-fleetwood) | NDPby 3.7 points (753 votes) | Conservativeahead by 1.5 pointsChange from 2024 | 4 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Cowichan Valley](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/cowichan-valley) | NDPby 2.9 points (849 votes) | Conservativeahead by 2.3 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Burnaby South-Metrotown](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/burnaby-south-metrotown) | NDPby 7.7 points (1,187 votes) | NDPahead by 2.6 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Kootenay Central](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kootenay-central) | NDPby 8 points (1,749 votes) | NDPahead by 2.8 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Vancouver-Langara](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-langara) | NDPby 2.4 points (419 votes) | Conservativeahead by 2.8 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Surrey-Newton](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-newton) | NDPby 8.2 points (1,266 votes) | NDPahead by 3 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Richmond-Steveston](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/richmond-steveston) | NDPby 2.1 points (484 votes) | Conservativeahead by 3.1 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Coquitlam-Burke Mountain](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/coquitlam-burke-mountain) | NDPby 1.7 points (368 votes) | Conservativeahead by 3.5 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Vernon-Lumby](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vernon-lumby) | NDPby 1.7 points (476 votes) | Conservativeahead by 3.5 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Surrey City Centre](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-city-centre) | NDPby 1.6 points (232 votes) | Conservativeahead by 3.6 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Mid Island-Pacific Rim](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/mid-island-pacific-rim) | NDPby 9.3 points (2,676 votes) | NDPahead by 4.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Juan de Fuca-Malahat](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/juan-de-fuca-malahat) | NDPby 0.6 points (141 votes) | Conservativeahead by 4.6 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/maple-ridge-pitt-meadows) | NDPby 9.8 points (2,579 votes) | NDPahead by 4.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Burnaby North](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/burnaby-north) | NDPby 10.3 points (2,066 votes) | NDPahead by 5.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey-Guildford](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-guildford) | NDPby 0.1 points (22 votes) | Conservativeahead by 5.1 pointsChange from 2024 | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Kelowna Centre](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kelowna-centre) | Conservativeby 0.2 points (40 votes) | Conservativeahead by 5.3 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [West Vancouver-Sea to Sky](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/west-vancouver-sea-to-sky) | Greenby 2.5 points (676 votes) | Greenahead by 5.3 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Courtenay-Comox](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/courtenay-comox) | Conservativeby 0.3 points (93 votes) | Conservativeahead by 5.5 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Maple Ridge East](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/maple-ridge-east) | Conservativeby 0.4 points (97 votes) | Conservativeahead by 5.6 points | 5 of 6Polls disagree |
| [Victoria-Beacon Hill](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/victoria-beacon-hill) | NDPby 13.9 points (3,990 votes) | NDPahead by 5.8 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Burnaby East](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/burnaby-east) | NDPby 11.3 points (2,292 votes) | NDPahead by 6.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Penticton-Summerland](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/penticton-summerland) | Conservativeby 1.1 points (317 votes) | Conservativeahead by 6.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Port Moody-Burquitlam](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/port-moody-burquitlam) | NDPby 11.6 points (2,995 votes) | NDPahead by 6.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey-Panorama](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-panorama) | Conservativeby 1.5 points (263 votes) | Conservativeahead by 6.7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Coquitlam-Maillardville](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/coquitlam-maillardville) | NDPby 12.2 points (2,826 votes) | NDPahead by 7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Nanaimo-Lantzville](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/nanaimo-lantzville) | NDPby 12.2 points (3,620 votes) | NDPahead by 7.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Delta North](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/delta-north) | NDPby 12.5 points (2,607 votes) | NDPahead by 7.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [North Island](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/north-island) | Conservativeby 2.1 points (639 votes) | Conservativeahead by 7.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey-Serpentine River](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-serpentine-river) | Conservativeby 2.2 points (435 votes) | Conservativeahead by 7.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey-Cloverdale](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-cloverdale) | Conservativeby 2.8 points (586 votes) | Conservativeahead by 7.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kootenay-Monashee](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kootenay-monashee) | NDPby 13.2 points (2,586 votes) | NDPahead by 8 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Powell River-Sunshine Coast](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/powell-river-sunshine-coast) | NDPby 13.9 points (4,065 votes) | NDPahead by 8.7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Columbia River-Revelstoke](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/columbia-river-revelstoke) | Conservativeby 3.7 points (670 votes) | Conservativeahead by 8.8 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Langley-Willowbrook](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/langley-willowbrook) | Conservativeby 3.8 points (867 votes) | Conservativeahead by 9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Saanich North and the Islands](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/saanich-north-and-the-islands) | Greenby 4 points (1,350 votes) | Greenahead by 9.2 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Langford-Highlands](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/langford-highlands) | NDPby 14.5 points (3,193 votes) | NDPahead by 9.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Burnaby Centre](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/burnaby-centre) | NDPby 14.6 points (2,486 votes) | NDPahead by 9.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Port Coquitlam](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/port-coquitlam) | NDPby 15.1 points (3,876 votes) | NDPahead by 9.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Langley-Walnut Grove](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/langley-walnut-grove) | Conservativeby 4.8 points (1,172 votes) | Conservativeahead by 10 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Boundary-Similkameen](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/boundary-similkameen) | Conservativeby 5.8 points (1,438 votes) | Conservativeahead by 11 points | 6 of 6 |
| [North Vancouver-Seymour](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/north-vancouver-seymour) | NDPby 17 points (5,215 votes) | NDPahead by 11.8 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Skeena](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/skeena) | Conservativeby 6.8 points (824 votes) | Conservativeahead by 11.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Richmond-Queensborough](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/richmond-queensborough) | Conservativeby 6.8 points (1,339 votes) | Conservativeahead by 12 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Saanich South](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/saanich-south) | NDPby 17.3 points (5,335 votes) | NDPahead by 12.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey-White Rock](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-white-rock) | Conservativeby 7 points (1,969 votes) | Conservativeahead by 12.2 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey North](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-north) | Conservativeby 7.4 points (1,159 votes) | Conservativeahead by 12.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Nanaimo-Gabriola Island](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/nanaimo-gabriola-island) | NDPby 18.1 points (5,030 votes) | NDPahead by 12.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kamloops Centre](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kamloops-centre) | Conservativeby 7.9 points (2,003 votes) | Conservativeahead by 13.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Chilliwack-Cultus Lake](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/chilliwack-cultus-lake) | Conservativeby 9.2 points (2,290 votes) | Conservativeahead by 14.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Oak Bay-Gordon Head](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/oak-bay-gordon-head) | NDPby 20.2 points (5,977 votes) | NDPahead by 15 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Delta South](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/delta-south) | Conservativeby 10.1 points (2,669 votes) | Conservativeahead by 15.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Fraserview](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-fraserview) | NDPby 20.6 points (4,278 votes) | NDPahead by 15.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Abbotsford-Mission](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/abbotsford-mission) | Conservativeby 10.8 points (2,629 votes) | Conservativeahead by 16 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Esquimalt-Colwood](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/esquimalt-colwood) | NDPby 22.2 points (6,586 votes) | NDPahead by 17.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Point Grey](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-point-grey) | NDPby 22.3 points (4,916 votes) | NDPahead by 17.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Quilchena](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-quilchena)Dallas Brodie, the sitting member, is on the list for OneBC. | Conservativeby 12.7 points (2,815 votes) | Conservativeahead by 17.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Bulkley Valley-Stikine](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/bulkley-valley-stikine) | Conservativeby 13.4 points (1,283 votes) | Conservativeahead by 18.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Burnaby-New Westminster](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/burnaby-new-westminster) | NDPby 25.3 points (4,486 votes) | NDPahead by 20.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Richmond Centre](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/richmond-centre) | Conservativeby 15.2 points (2,465 votes) | Conservativeahead by 20.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Chilliwack North](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/chilliwack-north) | Conservativeby 16.9 points (3,651 votes) | Conservativeahead by 22.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Surrey South](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/surrey-south) | Conservativeby 17.7 points (3,920 votes) | Conservativeahead by 22.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Fraser-Nicola](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/fraser-nicola) | Conservativeby 17.9 points (3,409 votes) | Conservativeahead by 23.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kelowna-lake-country-coldstream) | Conservativeby 18.7 points (4,953 votes) | Conservativeahead by 23.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kelowna-Mission](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kelowna-mission) | Conservativeby 18.9 points (5,158 votes) | Conservativeahead by 24.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [New Westminster-Coquitlam](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/new-westminster-coquitlam) | NDPby 29.3 points (6,319 votes) | NDPahead by 24.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Kensington](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-kensington) | NDPby 29.4 points (5,652 votes) | NDPahead by 24.2 points | 6 of 6 |
| [North Coast-Haida Gwaii](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/north-coast-haida-gwaii) | NDPby 29.8 points (2,235 votes) | NDPahead by 24.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [North Vancouver-Lonsdale](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/north-vancouver-lonsdale) | NDPby 29.8 points (7,686 votes) | NDPahead by 24.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [West Vancouver-Capilano](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/west-vancouver-capilano) | Conservativeby 19.5 points (5,043 votes) | Conservativeahead by 24.7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Victoria-Swan Lake](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/victoria-swan-lake) | NDPby 32.9 points (8,374 votes) | NDPahead by 24.8 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Prince George-Valemount](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/prince-george-valemount) | Conservativeby 20.3 points (3,309 votes) | Conservativeahead by 25.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kootenay-Rockies](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kootenay-rockies) | Conservativeby 12.3 points (2,373 votes) | Conservativeahead by 26.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Little Mountain](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-little-mountain) | NDPby 31.5 points (7,932 votes) | NDPahead by 26.3 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Abbotsford West](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/abbotsford-west) | Conservativeby 21.5 points (4,228 votes) | Conservativeahead by 26.7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Salmon Arm-Shuswap](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/salmon-arm-shuswap) | Conservativeby 21.7 points (6,889 votes) | Conservativeahead by 26.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Langley-Abbotsford](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/langley-abbotsford) | Conservativeby 21.9 points (5,650 votes) | Conservativeahead by 27.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Renfrew](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-renfrew) | NDPby 32.6 points (5,656 votes) | NDPahead by 27.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [West Kelowna-Peachland](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/west-kelowna-peachland) | Conservativeby 22.9 points (6,081 votes) | Conservativeahead by 28.1 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Richmond-Bridgeport](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/richmond-bridgeport) | Conservativeby 23.4 points (3,987 votes) | Conservativeahead by 28.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-West End](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-west-end) | NDPby 35.8 points (7,466 votes) | NDPahead by 30.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Abbotsford South](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/abbotsford-south) | Conservativeby 26.4 points (5,599 votes) | Conservativeahead by 31.6 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Kamloops-North Thompson](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/kamloops-north-thompson) | Conservativeby 26.8 points (8,056 votes) | Conservativeahead by 32 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-South Granville](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-south-granville) | NDPby 39.4 points (10,530 votes) | NDPahead by 34.2 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Hastings](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-hastings) | NDPby 39.9 points (8,846 votes) | NDPahead by 34.7 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Prince George-Mackenzie](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/prince-george-mackenzie) | Conservativeby 32.7 points (6,065 votes) | Conservativeahead by 37.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Cariboo-Chilcotin](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/cariboo-chilcotin) | Conservativeby 39.2 points (7,722 votes) | Conservativeahead by 44.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Prince George-North Cariboo](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/prince-george-north-cariboo) | Conservativeby 35 points (7,036 votes) | Conservativeahead by 45 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Nechako Lakes](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/nechako-lakes) | Conservativeby 40.2 points (4,684 votes) | Conservativeahead by 45.4 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Vancouver-Strathcona](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/vancouver-strathcona) | NDPby 51.1 points (10,243 votes) | NDPahead by 45.9 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Peace River South](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/peace-river-south) | Conservativeby 45.3 points (4,657 votes) | Conservativeahead by 69.2 points | 6 of 6 |
| [Peace River North](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/races/mla/peace-river-north)Jordan Kealy, the sitting member, is on the list with no party. | Conservativeby 54.2 points (8,175 votes) | Conservativethe only party in the estimate with a candidate here | 6 of 6 |
Contains information licenced under the Elections BC Open Data Licence. [Licence](https://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/EBC-Open-Data-Licence.pdf)
04 / Method
## How the estimate is made.
### The polls used
The newest poll from each firm whose interviews ended in the 14 days up to October 8, 2026: Liaison Strategies, Angus Reid Institute, Mainstreet Research, Ipsos, Léger and Innovative Research Group. Each firm counts once. Their plain average is 42.6% for the Conservative Party of BC, 39% for the BC NDP and 10.4% for the BC Green Party.
### The starting point
The votes counted in each of the 93 districts on October 19, 2024, from Elections BC. Across British Columbia that was 43.3% for the Conservative Party of BC, 44.9% for the BC NDP and 8.2% for the BC Green Party.
Sources [Elections BC, Provincial Voting Results by voting place ](https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/44914a35-de9a-4830-ac48-870001ef8935) [Elections BC, Statement of Votes, 43rd Provincial General Election ](https://elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/statement-of-votes-2024-provincial-election.pdf)
### The rule
A party’s change since 2024 across British Columbia is added to its 2024 share in every district: -0.7 points for the Conservative Party of BC, -5.9 points for the BC NDP and +2.2 points for the BC Green Party. The party with the highest number leads the district. A party with no candidate on the official list in a district is left out there.
### The range
The rule is run again on each of the 6 polls alone. The lowest and the highest seat count for a party are its range. A district is marked “Polls disagree” when those runs name different parties.
### What the rule cannot see
A well-known local candidate, a local issue, or a change that is stronger in one region than another. OneBC and Centre BC have no 2024 result to start from, so they get no district estimate. In 2 districts the sitting member is on the list without the party that won the seat in 2024, and the table says so.
### What it is
Arithmetic on published polls and official results, with every input on this page. The count on October 24, 2026 decides every seat.
05 / Poll by poll
## Every poll, newest first.
12Liaison StrategiesLatest
### Interviews Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**43%**
- BC NDP**37%**
- BC Green Party**10%**
- OneBC**4%**
- Other**4%**
- Centre BC**3%**
- Asked
- 1,000 British Columbians
882 named a choice
- How
- Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Recording, IVR) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
- Margin of error
- ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
- Paid for by
- Not stated in the release
- Released
- October 9, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
23% of everyone asked were undecided
11Angus Reid Institute
### Interviews Oct 1 to Oct 3, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**48%**
- BC NDP**43%**
- BC Green Party**7%**
- Other**2%**
- Asked
- 1,013 Canadian adults who are residents of British Columbia
849 named a choice
- How
- Online survey of members of the Angus Reid Forum, the firm's online panel
- Margin of error
- ±3 points
For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Angus Reid Institute, which says it commissioned and paid for the survey itself
- Released
- October 5, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
12% of everyone asked were undecided
- The release gives one figure for all other parties, with no separate share for OneBC or CentreBC.
- The undecided share is read from a chart in the report. The text and the tables do not print it.
10Mainstreet Research
### Interviews Sep 30 to Oct 1, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**44.7%**
- BC NDP**37.2%**
- BC Green Party**11.2%**
- OneBC**5.7%**
- Centre BC**1.1%**
- Asked
- 827 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia
784 named a choice
- How
- Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Response, IVR) to landlines and cell phones
- Margin of error
- ±3.4 points
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
- Paid for by
- Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
- Released
- October 6, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
13.1% of everyone asked were undecided
- Mainstreet publishes shares to one decimal place and lists no other choice. After people who were undecided were asked which party they lean toward, 4.8% stayed undecided.
09Ipsos
### Interviews Sep 25 to Sep 29, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**42%**
- BC NDP**40%**
- BC Green Party**10%**
- OneBC**3%**
- Centre BC**3%**
- Other**2%**
- Asked
- 1,001 adult British Columbians
733 named a choice
- How
- Online survey, with the sample sourced through the Ipsos panel
- Margin of error
- ±3.7 points
The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Global BC, in partnership with Ipsos
- Released
- October 1, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided voters
23% of everyone asked were undecided
- The undecided figure is the row “Completely undecided” in the firm’s tables. The release text gives 27% for people who are undecided or express no preference.
- Ipsos reports a credibility interval, its own measure of precision for an online poll.
08Léger
### Interviews Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- BC NDP**36%**
- BC Green Party**13%**
- OneBC**5%**
- Centre BC**5%**
- Other**2%**
- Asked
- 1,003 British Columbia residents aged 18 or older
818 named a choice
- How
- Online survey of people randomly recruited through Leger's LEO online panel
- Margin of error
- ±3.1 points
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,003 respondents would have a margin of error of no greater than ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Not stated in the release
- Released
- September 30, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided voters
13% of everyone asked were undecided
- The firm says a margin of error cannot be given for an online panel and prints the figure for comparison.
07Innovative Research Group
### Interviews Sep 25 to Sep 28, 2026
- BC NDP**41%**
- Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- BC Green Party**11%**
- OneBC**4%**
- Centre BC**3%**
- Other**3%**
- Asked
- 649 British Columbian citizens, 18 years or older
- How
- Online survey using INNOVATIVE's Canada 20/20 research panel, with additional respondents from Lucid, a provider of online samples
- Margin of error
- None stated
Margin of Error: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels.
- Paid for by
- Innovative Research Group, which says it sponsored the survey itself
- Released
- September 29, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided voters
13% of everyone asked were undecided
- 649 people answered, and the firm weights the results to 500.
- The firm says a margin of error cannot be calculated for an online sample of this kind.
- One slide title in the report says the Greens have 10%, and the chart on that slide says 11%. This page uses the chart.
06Liaison Strategies
### Interviews Sep 26 to Sep 27, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**40%**
- BC NDP**39%**
- BC Green Party**11%**
- Centre BC**4%**
- OneBC**3%**
- Other**3%**
- Asked
- 1,000 British Columbians
850 named a choice
- How
- Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Recording, IVR) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
- Margin of error
- ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
- Paid for by
- Not stated in the release
- Released
- September 29, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
25% of everyone asked were undecided
05Angus Reid Institute
### Interviews Sep 22 to Sep 24, 2026
- Conservative Party of BC**43%**
- BC NDP**35%**
- BC Green Party**12%**
- OneBC**4%**
- Centre BC**3%**
- Other**3%**
- Asked
- 801 British Columbian adults
682 named a choice
- How
- Online survey of members of the Angus Reid Forum, the firm's online panel
- Margin of error
- ±3.5 points
For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Angus Reid Institute, which says it commissioned and paid for the survey itself
- Released
- September 24, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
20% of everyone asked were undecided
- The report gives 10% for other parties. Its data tables split that into OneBC 4%, CentreBC 3% and independent candidates 3%.
- The undecided share is from the first vote question. After people were asked which party they lean toward, the tables show 12% undecided.
04Liaison Strategies
### Interviews Sep 21 to Sep 22, 2026
- BC NDP**41%**
- Conservative Party of BC**36%**
- BC Green Party**12%**
- OneBC**4%**
- Centre BC**4%**
- Other**3%**
- Asked
- 1,000 British Columbians
835 named a choice
- How
- Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Recording, IVR) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
- Margin of error
- ±3.1 points
For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
- Paid for by
- Not stated in the release
- Released
- September 23, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
24% of everyone asked were undecided
03Innovative Research Group
### Interviews Sep 4 to Sep 18, 2026
- BC NDP**43%**
- Conservative Party of BC**39%**
- BC Green Party**14%**
- Other**4%**
- Asked
- 561 BC respondents in a national survey of Canadian citizens, 18 years or older
- How
- Online survey using INNOVATIVE's Canada 20/20 research panel, with additional respondents from Lucid, a provider of online samples
- Margin of error
- None stated
Margin of Error: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels.
- Paid for by
- Innovative Research Group, which says it sponsored the survey itself
- Released
- September 22, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided voters
- The BC answers are part of a national survey. The report’s method table lists 561 BC respondents across three regions, weighted to 500.
- The report cover gives the dates September 4 to 18. One line inside the report says September 4 to 15, and the firm’s web page says August 24 to 25. This page uses the cover.
- The firm says a margin of error cannot be calculated for an online sample of this kind.
- The release gives one figure for all other parties, with no separate share for OneBC or CentreBC.
02Angus Reid Institute
### Interviews Sep 8 to Sep 15, 2026
- BC NDP**41%**
- Conservative Party of BC**37%**
- BC Green Party**13%**
- Other**9%**
- Asked
- 749 Canadian adults who are residents of British Columbia
640 named a choice
- How
- Online survey of members of the Angus Reid Forum, the firm's online panel
- Margin of error
- ±4 points
For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Angus Reid Institute, which says it commissioned and paid for the survey itself
- Released
- September 17, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided and leaning voters
- The release gives one figure for all other parties, with no separate share for OneBC or CentreBC.
- The firm published no undecided share for this poll.
01Ipsos
### Interviews Sep 8 to Sep 14, 2026
- BC NDP**45%**
- Conservative Party of BC**35%**
- BC Green Party**10%**
- Centre BC**4%**
- Other**4%**
- OneBC**2%**
- Asked
- 800 adult British Columbians
567 named a choice
- How
- Online survey, with the sample sourced through the Ipsos panel
- Margin of error
- ±4 points
The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Paid for by
- Not stated in the release
- Released
- September 15, 2026
- Shares are of
- decided voters
23% of everyone asked were undecided
- The undecided figure is the row “Completely undecided” in the firm’s tables. The release text gives 28% for people who are undecided or express no preference.
- Ipsos reports a credibility interval, its own measure of precision for an online poll.
06 / All the numbers
## The full table.
| Poll | Share of | NDP | Conservative | Green | OneBC | CentreBC | Other | Undecided |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Liaison StrategiesOct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1 | decided and leaning voters | 37% | 43% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 23% |
| Angus Reid InstituteOct 1 to Oct 3, 2026 · 1,013 asked · ±3 | decided and leaning voters | 43% | 48% | 7% | n/p | n/p | 2% | 12% |
| Mainstreet ResearchSep 30 to Oct 1, 2026 · 827 asked · ±3.4 | decided and leaning voters | 37.2% | 44.7% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.1% | n/p | 13.1% |
| IpsosSep 25 to Sep 29, 2026 · 1,001 asked · ±3.7 | decided voters | 40% | 42% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 23% |
| LégerSep 24 to Sep 28, 2026 · 1,003 asked · ±3.1 | decided voters | 36% | 39% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 13% |
| Innovative Research GroupSep 25 to Sep 28, 2026 · 649 asked | decided voters | 41% | 39% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 13% |
| Liaison StrategiesSep 26 to Sep 27, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1 | decided and leaning voters | 39% | 40% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 25% |
| Angus Reid InstituteSep 22 to Sep 24, 2026 · 801 asked · ±3.5 | decided and leaning voters | 35% | 43% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 20% |
| Liaison StrategiesSep 21 to Sep 22, 2026 · 1,000 asked · ±3.1 | decided and leaning voters | 41% | 36% | 12% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 24% |
| Innovative Research GroupSep 4 to Sep 18, 2026 · 561 asked | decided voters | 43% | 39% | 14% | n/p | n/p | 4% | n/p |
| Angus Reid InstituteSep 8 to Sep 15, 2026 · 749 asked · ±4 | decided and leaning voters | 41% | 37% | 13% | n/p | n/p | 9% | n/p |
| IpsosSep 8 to Sep 14, 2026 · 800 asked · ±4 | decided voters | 45% | 35% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 23% |
“n/p” means the firm did not publish that figure.
07 / Before you draw conclusions
## How to read these polls.
### Margin of error
These polls asked between 561 and 1,013 people. 10 of the 12 state a margin of error or a figure like it, from ±3 to ±4 points, 19 times out of 20. A lead smaller than the margin can be no lead at all.
### Who paid
- Liaison Strategies: Not stated in the release
- Angus Reid Institute: Angus Reid Institute, which says it commissioned and paid for the survey itself
- Mainstreet Research: Mainstreet Research, which says it commissioned the poll itself
- Ipsos: Global BC, in partnership with Ipsos; Not stated in the release
- Léger: Not stated in the release
- Innovative Research Group: Innovative Research Group, which says it sponsored the survey itself
### How people were reached
- Liaison Strategies: Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Recording, IVR) to landlines and cell phones reached by random digit dialling
- Angus Reid Institute: Online survey of members of the Angus Reid Forum, the firm's online panel
- Mainstreet Research: Automated phone calls (Interactive Voice Response, IVR) to landlines and cell phones
- Ipsos: Online survey, with the sample sourced through the Ipsos panel
- Léger: Online survey of people randomly recruited through Leger's LEO online panel
- Innovative Research Group: Online survey using INNOVATIVE's Canada 20/20 research panel, with additional respondents from Lucid, a provider of online samples
### What the shares are a share of
- Liaison Strategies: decided and leaning voters
- Angus Reid Institute: decided and leaning voters
- Mainstreet Research: decided and leaning voters
- Ipsos: decided voters
- Léger: decided voters
- Innovative Research Group: decided voters
This page lists every poll we could find in published form with interviews since September 1, 2026, as of October 10, 2026. If we have missed one, [tell us](https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/report).
08 / Questions
## Questions about these polls.
Who is leading the polls in the British Columbia provincial election 2026?
The Conservative Party of BC has 43% and the BC NDP has 37% of decided and leaning voters in the most recent poll, by Liaison Strategies, with interviews Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026.
How many seats would each party win if the polls are right?
Applying the average of the 6 newest polls to the 2024 result in each district gives 53 for the Conservative Party of BC, 38 for the BC NDP and 2 for the BC Green Party. 47 of 93 seats make a majority. Run on each poll alone, the count for the Conservative Party of BC goes from 41 to 58.
How does voche.me estimate seats?
It takes how many points each party has moved across British Columbia since 2024, using the newest poll from each firm, and adds that same change to the party's 2024 share in every district. The party with the highest number leads the district. The page lists every poll used and every district.
How many polls of the British Columbia provincial election 2026 are on this page?
12 polls by 6 firms (Liaison Strategies, Angus Reid Institute, Mainstreet Research, Ipsos, Léger and Innovative Research Group), with interviews from September 4, 2026 to October 8, 2026. The page starts at September 1, 2026, and each poll links to its source.
When is the election in British Columbia?
Election day is October 24, 2026. Polls are opinion surveys, and the count on election day decides the result.
Does voche.me run its own polls?
voche.me commissions no polls. Every poll figure on this page is copied from the polling firm's published report. The seat estimate is voche.me's own arithmetic on those published figures and on the official results of the last election.
## Sitemap
See the full [sitemap](/bc/provincial-2026/sitemap.md) for all pages.