--- title: "Fact check: Eby promised steadily declining deficits in 2024. The deficit has grown each year since, to a forecast $13.8 billion" description: "In 2024 David Eby promised steadily declining deficits and a return to balance. The voche.me editors checked the promise against the province's own figures." canonical_url: "https://voche.me/bc/provincial-2026/news/fact-check-eby-declining-deficits-promise-record" last_updated: "2026-10-11T21:32:18.374Z" --- *This is a fact check by the voche.me editors. Each figure is listed with its source at the end.* In the 2024 election, [David Eby](/bc/provincial-2026/candidates/david-eby) made a promise about the province's finances. The Canadian Press recorded it in his words: "steadily declining deficits" and a "return to balance". A deficit is the amount a government spends in a year beyond what it takes in. Balance means the two are equal. We checked the promise against the province's own report. ## The record, year by year The Ministry of Finance published its First Quarterly Report on September 14, 2026. A budget year runs from April 1 to March 31. The report lists these results: 1. **2022/23:** a surplus of $956 million. Mr. Eby became premier on November 18, 2022, partway through this year. 2. **2023/24:** a deficit of $5.035 billion. 3. **2024/25:** a deficit of $7.347 billion. This is the year of the promise. 4. **2025/26:** a deficit of $7.700 billion. 5. **2026/27:** a forecast deficit of $13.759 billion, which The Canadian Press called a record. The deficit has grown in each year since the promise. This year's forecast is 87 per cent larger than the deficit in the year he made it. The plan for the next two years shows $12.671 billion and $11.988 billion. Those figures do decline. Each is still larger than any finished year in the list, and the plan ends in March 2029 with no balanced year. The rating agency Morningstar DBRS read the same plan. In its report of May 1, 2026, it wrote that the deficits "remain elevated throughout the forecast period with no plan to return to balance." ## What the deficits did to the debt The report separates the debt that taxes repay from the debt of government-owned companies such as BC Hydro. The first kind was $59.888 billion on March 31, 2023. It was $117.440 billion on March 31, 2026. That is 96 per cent higher in three years. The forecast for March 2027 is $141.139 billion, and the plan for March 2029 is $187.272 billion. Interest costs rose with the debt. The province paid $2.032 billion in interest on this debt in 2022/23 and $3.917 billion in 2025/26. In 2022/23, interest took 2.5 cents of each dollar of revenue. The forecast is 6.1 cents this year and 8.2 cents in 2028/29. ## The government's explanation The Canadian Press put the 2024 promise to Finance Minister [Josie Osborne](/bc/provincial-2026/candidates/josie-osborne) on September 14. The Canadian Press reported her answer: the government was not expecting to be in an unjustified trade war. She added that it was too early to talk about future budgets. Mr. Eby's campaign page makes the same link. It says: "When the trade war put BC jobs at risk, David stood up for BC workers." The province's report supports part of this. It says uncertainty from United States tariffs, the conflict in the Middle East and tighter federal immigration rules have slowed the economy, and that exports to the United States are down, mostly softwood lumber. It cut its forecast of economic growth for 2026 from 1.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent. Three facts limit the explanation. **The first deficit came before the trade war.** The $5.035 billion deficit belongs to the budget year that ended on March 31, 2024. The United States election was on November 5, 2024, more than seven months later. **Spending grew faster than revenue.** From 2022/23 to 2025/26, the province's revenue rose from $81.790 billion to $86.871 billion, which is 6.2 per cent. Its spending rose from $80.834 billion to $94.571 billion, which is 17.0 per cent. **A rating agency found the trade damage smaller than expected.** Morningstar DBRS wrote that "the impacts from trade actions on the provincial economy have been less severe than initially anticipated". It added that continued tariffs remain a risk to growth. The report also explains this year's increase of $450 million since the February budget. Wildfire costs are $614 million higher. Tax credits cost $458 million more. Natural gas revenue is $531 million lower, partly because of what the report calls "calculation errors found in the Budget 2026 price forecast". ## What the rating agencies did A credit rating is a grade for how safely a government can repay what it borrows. Three agencies lowered British Columbia's grade in March and April 2026. 1. **Moody's**, on March 19. The Canadian Press reported that it cited "large, structural deficits". 2. **S&P Global**, in a report published on April 2. Daily Hive reported that the rating went from A+ to A. 3. **Morningstar DBRS**, on April 9, from AA (high) to AA. ## What can be said in his defence A fair reader should consider four points. Mr. Eby has said the alternative was deeper cuts. The Canadian Press reported on March 19 that he said the budget was hard to write because health care and building costs are rising, and that the other path was for health care to take the largest share of cuts. He has said how he would reduce it. "We've got to end wasteful spending," he said on September 28, as The Canadian Press reported, and "We've got to grow the economy". One agency expects improvement. Morningstar DBRS changed its outlook for the province from negative to stable and wrote that it expects the province "will be able to reduce the deficit gradually". His main rival has given no date either. [Lorne Doerkson](/bc/provincial-2026/candidates/lorne-doerkson), the interim Conservative leader, said on September 28: "It's going to be almost impossible to commit to how quickly we will be able to arrive at balanced budgets." ## Our finding By the province's own figures, the 2024 promise has not been met. The deficit rose from $7.347 billion in the year of the promise to a forecast $13.759 billion this year. The government's plan to March 2029 contains no balanced year. The trade war is a real cost, and the province's report says so. It began after the first deficit, and spending had already grown faster than revenue. Our [earlier article](/bc/provincial-2026/news/opinion-eby-ndp-promises-priced) counted which of the BC NDP's new promises carry a dollar figure. Read the sources below and decide for yourself. The [BC NDP page](/bc/provincial-2026/parties/bc-ndp) lists the party's candidates. Election day is October 24, 2026. ## Sitemap See the full [sitemap](/bc/provincial-2026/sitemap.md) for all pages.